Page 91 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

chapter 4: assessment of climate change impact on banana production and suitability in ecuador, and general assessment of global banana trends under climate change scenarios
be applied as irrigation to meet plant needs will increase by 12-15 percent over the period (Table 15). This will be the result of greater irrigation demand during the dry season.
2.3 Projections for effect of climate change on the Black Sigatoka and the banana weevil
In addition to the effects on leaf emission and water demand, average climate change may also affect the conditions for disease incidence and severity. The most important leaf disease, Mycosphaerella fijiensis -or BS - and an indicator insect pest, cosmopolites sordidus - or stem weevil - were used as indicators of the projected effect of climate change on banana pest management.
2.3.1 Black Sigatoka
To project the effect of changes in average climate on BS, daily weather data are needed. The simulator program, MarkSimTM, which works at a scale of 30 arc- seconds, calculates from the WorldClim database for its simulated daily rainfall patterns (Hijmans et al., 2005). For each of the proposed years, 2030, 2050 and 2070, MarkSimTM was run ten times to generate daily rainfall patterns. These were then averaged to obtain a single daily rainfall pattern for the location. The calculation was done for the Pichilingue site, which has the most complete weather station data. The projected distributions were compared with the daily distribution from the
Table 15 Water demand and irrigation needs for banana in six sites in Ecuador through 2070
Region
Baseline
2030
2050
2070
Total banana water demand (mm/year)
El vergel
Esmeraldas
La Mana
Milagro
Pagua
Pichilingue El vergel
Esmeraldas
La Mana
Milagro
Pagua
Pichilingue
1 724 1 808
1 686 1 771
1 479 1 512
1 825 1 883
1 730 1 771
1 848 1 918
744 820
495 554
591 619
1 147 1 206
1 267 1 359
1 001 1 034
1 827
1 804
1 540
1 915
1 796
1 929
1 850
1 949
1 699
2 084
1 808
1 936
Total water deficit (irrigation needs) (mm/year)
832 839
591 638
633 723
1 262
1 408
1 035
1 345
1 353
1 050
Source Authors’ calculations, based on baseline and projections from CCAFS database portal (Ramírez and Jarvis, 2008).
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