Page 77 - FAO-IPCC Expert meeting on climate change

Appendix 01: Speakers’ summary notes
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unless accompanied by stronger governance of natural resources” (Byerlee et al., 2014, 92). These policies would include land-use zoning, economic instruments, strategic deployment of infrastructure, certification, and sustainability standards (Phalan et al., 2016). There are few, if any, examples of where such policies have been designed with the explicit intention of promoting a land-sparing outcome. Designing and testing the success of such measures should be a key focus of agricultural programmes aiming for zero deforestation, as well as those seeking to expand the area available for restoration of native forests (Latawiec et al., 2015).
Summary
First, the Borlaug hypothesis might hold at the global level, and in particular for yield-increasing technological change that produce for markets with inelastic demand.
Second, technological changes at local or even national level show mixed outcomes on forests, depending on technology and market characteristics. Simply assuming a particular outcome can lead to unintended climate effects of policy interventions.
Third, technological progress can also lead to more deforestation, due to the higher profitability, when market conditions are favourable for expansion, or when technology diffusion leads to the emergence of new deforestation frontiers.
Fourth, although technological progress alone cannot guarantee forest conservation, it can be part of a carefully- designed policy package that ensure win-win outcomes (local income and food security, and forest conservation with biodiversity and climate mitigation benefits).
References
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FAO-IPCC Expert meeting on climate change, land use and food security