Page 294 - Demo

SPORTSt______________Boston, The Yanks Are ComingSturm and d ran g and all, there are only two team s that have p lay ed b e tte r b all th an the Y ankees thus far this year. U nfortunately one of them is still the R ed Sox, though that may no longer be true after the two team s have played four games at F en %u00adway this w eekend. The R ed Sox lead has now been cut to four games.Though as little as ten days ago it seemed unlikely that the Y anks w ould be playing any big games in Septem ber, this series and the one next w eekend at the Stadium prom ises to be classic, heat-ofthe-race series. The kid at the Stadium who has already packed aw ay $ 2 4,000 selling B oston Sucks t-shirts ought to own a seaton the Stock Exchange by the m iddle of the m onth.T he Y ankees have been playing .700 ball for the last m onth, and th ey %u2019ve been doing it with obvious w eapons: T im ely hitting, quality pitching, and unhittable stopper in the bullpen, im portant contrib u tio n s from spot players. T u e s d a y n ig h t R oy W h ite , ignored for m ost of this season, sm acked a th ree-ru n hom er that was the key hit in the Y anks 4-2 victory. M eanw hile D ick T idrow w orked out of constant trouble to earn his seventh victory while R ich G ossage picked up another save.It w ould be convenient to point to the end of the Billy M artin affair as the turning point of ther ....GARY HOENIG%u2019SBottomLineAfter Sunday%u2019s surprising Jet victory over M iami, a lot of the Je ts w ere talking about a national m agazine%u2019s football predictions for the coming season. These w ere com piled by a highly-touted com puter expert from Los Angeles, Bud Goode. Goode had projected th at the J e ts would win one gam e and lose 15 this year. N eedless to say, the Je ts do not feel they will lose their next 15 in a row.G oode%u2019s com puter ouija-board is a perfect exam ple of a current sports m erchandising technique, the m ystification process. M ystification is very im portant to everyone involved in sportsbiz. It requires the developm ent of a com plicated and im portant-sounding vocabulary to describe relatively sim ple plays and actions. Ideally, that vocabulary should be as inaccessible as possible to even the enthusiastic fan, but also ultim ately insignificant to those who really understand the gam e. M ystic-talk is ideal for the incom petent coach or th self-proclaim ed sports expert, and perfect double-talk for the endless succession of babbling announcers who d o n %u2019t have the slightest idea of w hat%u2019s going on down there:%u201c Looks like B roadshoulder caught them rolling th e zone to the wrong side, eh, M onte?%u2019%u2019T hat%u2019s right. C urt. There were in a 3-4 flex, so K erry audibled at the line and fbund Sledgeham m er free beneath the weak side co v erag e.%u201dThe fan on th e other end of the tube saw only a desp erate quarterback having a wobbly lob into the m itts of a 240-lb. bru iser, who then tram pled two skinny cornerbacks on the way to th e end zone. Poor, ignorant viewer.STATISTICAL HUSTLEA bright h u stler like Bud Goode can really take advantage of this desperate need to know more than th e next guy. Not that Goode is a charlatan. He sim ply has added th e vocabulary of num bers to m ustic-talk.Goode provides statistical data for ten N.F.L. team s, using a relatively common statistical technique known as m ultiple regression. Simply put, m ultiple regression provides a coach with a statistical analysis of his tean v s perform ance in previous gam es, which he can then use to develop a reasonable plan of action whe provided with sim ilar data on his next opponent. G am blers call that a system , though no gam bler can, m entally supply him self with the volum e of inform ation that spew s from a Univac com puter.Coaches are well aw are of th e lim itations of this inform ation, ju st as sophisticated corporate executives recognize the lim its of any technology w ithout creative hum an guidance. Chuck Knox, a highly successful Goode client who now coaches at Buffalo, often scolds Goode by telling him he knows nothing about football. The J e ts %u2019 W alt M ichaels calls it garbage in, garbage out. But Goode is a sm art businessm an. Coaches ju st want inform ation, so he gives them inform ation. M agazines, and th eir readers, w ant predictions, so he gives them predictions. T h ere%u2019s nothing in his Contract that says he has to be right.ONLY GOD AND GOODE?W hat%u2019s m ost galling about all this is that a p restige publication would sell its readers the Goode predictions as if they w ere som ehow th e genuine article, the real probability of the future. T h ere%u2019s no way for Goode to predict w hat th e ten Je t rookies will m ean to the 1978 team , or, for that m atter, w hether M iami, whom Goode picked to go to th e Super Bowl, will lose all of its gam es with Bob G riese injured. AH h e %u2019s got to go on are last season%u2019s num brs. In fact, Goode did about as well at predicting the outcom e of th e football season openers as did New Y ork%u2019s bookies, whose Sunday m orning point spreads varied on an average of 82 points from the actual scores. Not bad, but then bookies can%u2019t afford com puters. They use a sophisticated technique called finding an edge.This passion for the oracular pow er of statistics extends to other sports ABC, for exam ple, constantly inundates its M onday night baseball view ers with w eirdo num bers: H itting .318 with two outs ana a black man pitching: Drove in 16 runs while w earing one contact lens. And so on. W hat does it all m ean? W e kno\\#, and you don't. Right, M onte? Right, Curt.Y a n k e e se a so n . P e rh a p s em otionally it was. T he Yanks are surely a looser bunch under easygoing Bob Lem on then they w ere under Bill M artin. H appier, looser players som etim es play b etter baseball.But m ore than healed psyches, the Y anks are boasting healed bodies. Tw o m onths ago the Y anks were posting an up-them iddle lineup of M ike H eath at catcher, Fred Stanley at short, D am aso G arcia at second and G a r r y T h o m a so n in c e n te r. S e c o n d p la c e w as an overachievem ent for that lineup. A nd the pitching! T he Y anks w ere trading pitchers with W est H aven once a week, after one m ore kid had spent a couple of innings ducking line drives.These days the real Y ankees, the defending cham pions, are playing regularly. Bucky D ent, W illie R andolph, and M ickey R ivers have returned to their rightful places, and Rivers has even exhibited some of the kind o f play that has ignited theY ankee attack for the past two seasons. T hurm an M unson is back behind the plate every day, and Reggie Jackson has provided a steady if not spectacular bat to the Y ankeepennant drive. W ith nam es like H unter and Figueroa in the starting ro tatio n , the p itching staff has a professional legitim acy once again. And Rich G ossage has been so unhittable for the last two m onths that he m ight have given Jim Rice a run for the M V P aw ard %u2014 if it w asn%u2019t for Ron G uidry.E x to llin g G u id ry is getting boring. G u id ry has now becom e the m ajors%u2019 first 20-gam e w inner, a n d c o n tin u e s to le a d th e A m e ric a n L e a g u e E .R .A ., striekouts, com plete games and shutouts. Only com parisons with Koufax rem ain, and that can only com e with time. G uidry will finally get his chance to pitch against the Red Sox in a big series this w eekend, and the Red Sox can just about w rite that game off.T he M ets were having a bit of fun playing spoilers in the westerndivision pennant race on their cu rren t road trip. A fter beating the G iants 10-4 last W ednesday, the M ets split a series with the D odgers, preventing them from opening up some distance from the G iants. Then the M ets ran into the Pittsburgh Pirates this week, and were slaughtered by the red-hot Bucs in three co n %u00adsecutive games. The M ets w ere adm irably consistent in all three games, scoring only four runs in the series, playing the kind of defense that only a W alter M atthau could love, throw ing batting practice to a Pirate offense that scored 22 runs in three games. Pittsburgh has now won 20 of 22, to close an 11 1/2 game lead held by the Phillies a m onth ago to 1/2 game. T he D odgers lead the G iants in- the W est by 2 games. K a n sa s C ity is d e s p e r a te ly sustaining a 11/2 gam e lead over the A ngels in the A m erican League W est, but that supposedly fla w le s s C a lif o r n ia w e a th e r caused both an A ngel-R anger and G ian t-D o d g er gam e to be rained out T uesday night. %u2014 G .H .GROUND GRINDER. Jet back Scott Dierking (right) contributing to the respectable 150yard ground game by the Jets against Miami (Jim Cummins Photo)FantasylandJets, Giants Win OpenersO ne week of reality and the Jets and G iants are still out there in fa n ta sy la n d . T h e h a rd tru th should sink in for both team s before too long, but the G iants w illbe getting a bitter taste of it a lo t so o n e r, w ith the D a lla s C ow boys opening the G ian ts Stadium season on Sunday.The Jets are sky high after their re m a rk a b le sla u g h te r o f the M iam i D olphins Sunday. T ru e, the D olphins were minus Bob G rie s e , p e rh a p s th e g a m e %u2019s sm artest quaterback, and two of la st s e a s o n %u2019s d e fe n s iv e lin e starters, including rookie-of-theyear A.J. Duhe, w ere missing from the defensive lineup, but the D olphins were expected to do well enough during an easy early schedule to still be in contention w h en a n d if th e s e p la y e rs re tu rn e d . But R ich ard T o d d m ercilessly destroyed the fabled Shula-zone with a deadly m edium and long-range passing game to W e sle y W a lk e r a n d r o o k ie D errick G affney. T he runninggam e was steady if not spectacular, the defense enthusiastic and o p p o rtu n istic if not in %u00adv in c ib le . T he k ick in g gam e, u su ally e rra tic , was su p erio r. T o d d was kind to the M iam i team afte r the gam e, but on the sidelines he kept telling team %u00adm ates he was going to throw the ball dow n M iam i%u2019s throats. T odd injured a knee against M iam i last season, and the Jets were nothing for the rest of the season. He has been anxious for a taste of revenge ever since.Buffalo in Buffalo and Seattle at hom e are next for the Jets, and two of this season%u2019s easiest opponents provide an opportunity to really build confidence. On the other hand, a sudden letdow n against these weak team s, and all that confidence could be gone by the time the rough teams com e to town.T he G iants had a rough time against Tam pa Bay,where a loss in the season%u2019s opener would have been a disaster. But Joe Pisarcikwho seem s to thrive on pressure situations, came in for an injured Jerry G olsteyn to throw a 67-yard TD bom b to Johnny Perkins in the th ird q u arter and engineer a couple o f clock-killing drives in the fourth q u arter to preserve a 1 9 -1 3 victory. T he G iants defense was again superb, and contributed a touchdow n on a 32-yard interception by rookie cornerback Jackson. The offense was u n %u00adcertain and sluggish, with the most hopeful perform ance being the key yardage picked up by Larry C sonka during those fourth qu arter drives. Though with the exception of G olsteyn, there are no additio n s to the extensive G iants injury list, both Brad Van Pelt and Brian Kelley figure to miss the D allas game. D allas was m erciless in its 38-0 pounding of a tough C olts team , and one G ian t official adm itted to being te rrifie d at the p ro sp e c t of playing the Cowboys at this stage of the season. %u2014 G.H.Page 40, m t p h u tN iX September 7, 1576