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TEAMFLY200 RISK MANAGEMENT FOR THE SIGMAPHOBIC

• The degree of acceptable risk or penalty for delays.
• How complete the definition of the workscope is.
• How well the work will be managed (if pressure is not kept on the schedule,

slips of up to 50% can be expected).
• How active Murphy is on your job.

The easiest and safest way to build in a time contingency is to extend the proj-
ect end date to a point where there is a comfortable amount of positive float. But
this may not be practical for several reasons. It may not be cost effective. It may
not be acceptable to your client. It may not fit with other programs associated
with your project. However, it cannot be acceptable to proceed with a zero float
plan if meeting the end date is important. Therefore, if the end date can’t be
moved, then the work must be replanned to create a schedule with reasonable
positive float (time contingency).

Replanning, to gain schedule float, can involve one or more of these.

• Selective overlapping of tasks.
• Increased resources or use of overtime.
• Reducing scope.
• Outsourcing.
• Alternative strategies.

As the available time cushion is reduced, the alternatives are to take preemp-
tive actions to prevent high-risk incidents from occurring, and to increase efforts
to identify all the work as early as possible.

Also, when the schedule contingency is too small to allow slippage, more effort
must be spent on managing task interfaces. My experience has been that as much
time can be lost between tasks as in the execution of the tasks themselves.

Use Accomplishment Value to Supplement Float Analysis

Accomplishment value, or earned value (a.k.a. Budgeted Cost of Work Per-
formed) pertains to the measurement of accomplishment against the plan, once
the work is underway. Normally, when we have a critical path schedule, we rely
primarily on total float to see how we’re doing. If we maintain the desired float,
we assume that the schedule progress is satisfactory. This can be a false security.
If you read the manuals on the use of the critical path method, you probably were
told that CPM analysis helps you to focus on the work that is most critical. The
problem is that we can be watching the critical items while the rest of the project
gets less emphasis on maintaining schedule.