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204 RISK MANAGEMENT FOR THE SIGMAPHOBIC

own infallibility (the Titanic syndrome)? Whether schedule, cost, or technical
design, we usually develop an appraisal that contains a most likely scenario, and
a potential upside and a potential downside. Then we say that the downside will
never happen. Such thinking is suicidal. Preparing for the downside allows us to
manage these risks.

Not Very Scientific—But It Works

Time contingency, float management, earned value analysis, management re-
serve, and technical risk analysis are all very basic, nonscientific, practical means
of managing and avoiding risk. All of these practices can be supported by com-
monly available tools, such as project management software and spreadsheets.