Page 14 - EUREKA -Fall 2014

Discovering “There were a lot of farms strung track down citizen scientist ice-out

out along the lake,” said Patterson. records from two other lakes in New
Climate Change “In the early days people might be Brunswick, Lake Skiff and Lake Utopia.
The Carleton geologist then

milking the cows, look out the window
in “Ice Out” and note that the ice had just gone compared the unpublished data
from these three lakes to previously
out. They would write the date down
Community Engagement by Elizabeth Howell stretching back to 1876.” a high correlation between spring
published ice-out dates from Maine
on whatever was handy. So Clayton
Records
and New hampshire.
and other people looked at cellarways

This data comparison revealed
and barn doors and created a record
instrumental records and the ice-out
The work done by Piercy improves

dates for lakes.
on current records of the area’s spring

“We knew we were on to
temperatures, which only date back to
t was when Tim Patterson was
something as a review of the literature
the 1890’s.
Iwaiting to board the plane home
revealed that although lake records
from a work trip that he made the
After discovering Piercy and the

have been examined to determine
lake, Patterson got to work before
discovery. In an effort to kill time, the
trends, no one had ever carried out
even boarding his plane, sending the
Carleton geologist had Googled his
time series analysis,” said Patterson.
hometown of harvey, N.B, a search
data to Dr. Graeme Swindles, associate
Researchers found that on average,
that would later contribute significantly
Leeds University in the UK.
earlier than when the Little Ice Age
to his own research on climate change.

By the time Patterson’s plane
drew to a close in the 1870’s. After this
On the website for the Oromocto
landed in Canada, Swindles had done
that led him to a citizen science project professor of earth system dynamics at the lakes’ ice broke up 13.2 days
Lake association Patterson had found a preliminary time-series analysis of point, ice-out dates were observed
detailed records of “ice-out”, also the data and found evidence of there to occur progressively earlier until a
known as the springtime ice-break up, being several climate phenomena at climate-cooling period from 1940 to
for the lake. As it turned out, most of work. One phenomena found was the 1970 pushed dates later again.
these records had been collected by El Niño Southern Oscillation, which The ice-out dates occurred the
one person, a man by the name of cycles between unusually warm and earliest in the year, after the 1970’s,
Clayton Piercy. cold waters in the tropical eastern which reflects significant warming in
st
Although in his 80’s, Piercy was still Pacific. the 20 and 21 centuries.
th
an active ice-out observer, even going These cycles impact global climates The research done by Patterson
so far as to collect records from others such as where the lake is located, New has been submitted to the ‘Climate
stretching back decades before his Brunswick, in the process. Dynamics’ journal.
birth. Piercy and others helped Patterson

14 Fall 2014