Page 38 - Anuário Estatístico da Companhias Abertas 2017/2018

Matéria de capa Cover story
3. RAzõES DE UM CENÁRIO OTIMISTA PARA O MERCADO DE CAPITAIS BRASILEIRO
Conclui-se que a experiência dos últimos anos justifica a expectativa de que a continuidade de queda da taxa de juros em 2017 e no futuro próximo
Grá co 7 / Graph 7
caracteriza um cenário para o mercado de capitais consideravelmente melhor que o observado nos últimos anos. As expectativas de mercado para a taxa SELIC no fim de 20176 atingem 7% a.a., sustentadas também pelo novo ritmo adotado pelo Banco Central no
processo de redução da taxa de juros, como evidenciado no gráfico 7.
Dada expectativa de inflação de 4,34% em 2018, a taxa real de juros no fim desse ano atingiria cerca de 4% a.a., retornando ao nível somente observado antes da crise e da perda do
Cenário da Taxa de Juros (SELIC) Fonte: Pesquisa Focus de 20/04/2017
Scenario of interest rate (SELIC) source: Focus Search of 4/20/2017
13,75 13,00
11,25 10,75 8,75
14,25
14,25
11,25
11,00
12,50
12,25
13,00
11,25
10,25 9,5
10,50
9,00 7,25
8,5 8,63
rates on the issuance of these securities, also reflecting the migration of investor resources to public debt securities, which offer levels of risk, return and liquidity with which private securities face enormous difficulty in competing. It is relevant to note that the participation of corporate debt securities in the financing of companies placed on the market has remained stagnant in the last 10 years, as indicated in graph 06.
3. REASONS FOR AN OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO FOR THE BRAzILIAN CAPITAL MARKET
It is concluded that the experience of recent years justifies the expectation that the
continuity of the drop in the interest rate in 20176 and in the near future characterizes a scenario for the capital market considerably better than that observed in recent years. Market expectations for the SELIC rate at the end of 2017 reached 7.0% p.a., also supported by the new rhythm adopted by the Central Bank in the process of interest rate reduction, as evidenced in graph 07.
Given the expected inflation of 4.34% in 2018, the real interest rate at the end of this year would reach around 4% p.a., returning to the level only observed before the crisis and the loss the investment grade. graph 08 allows this comparison to be made and shows that this expectation implies a considerable
reduction of the real rate observed in the 360-day fixed rate swap operations observed on March 13, 2017.
Another factor that should certainly act positively in the performance of the capital market from here on is the positioning of BNDES. The suspension of transfers of Treasury resources results in a strong reduction of the supply of financing resources offered at rates lower than the market, in strong competition with the private debt market. Just as important is the adoption of a new operational policy by BNDES, characterizing a favorable action to the capital market. In many cases, criteria are adopted in which the capture of a portion of the funds in the
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