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Retrospectiva Retrospective
BRASIL SE MANTÉM COMO A 8a ECONOMIA MUNDIAL
Apesar do baixo crescimento em 2018, o Brasil se manteve como a oitava economia do mundo em valor do PIB, posição que deve permanecer até 2021, segundo estimativa do FMI. Já em termos de crescimento percentual, o País ficou na 40a posição em um ranking de 42 países, segundo pesquisa da consultoria Austin Rating. O crescimento de apenas de 1,1% colocou o País abaixo da média global de 3,3% dos países pesquisados. A distância para os países do grupo dos Brics foi ainda maior. A média de crescimento no grupo foi de 5,1%.
A Índia liderou o ranking da Austin com alta de 7,5% no ano, seguida pela China, com 6,6% em 2018. O economista-chefe da Austin Rating, Alex Agostini, diz que a taxa de investimento brasileiro em relação ao PIB é muito baixa (15,8% em 2018). Países como China e Índia investem entre 30% e 40% do PIB para manter crescimentos acima de 6%, diz Agostini. Ele acredita que se o Brasil investisse pelo menos 30% do PIB, poderia crescer até 5% ao ano.
2.3%. Among Latin American countries, Brazil’s growth was higher than that of Venezuela (-18%) and Argentina (-2.5%), and equal to that of Ecuador (1.1%).
The IMF report, released in July, predicts that Brazil will grow 0.8% this year. While, domestically, the Central Bank’s Focus report foreseesa0.83%increaseinGDP.Iftheforecast is confirmed, Brazil’s result will be below the average for Latin America, estimated by the Fund at 1.4%. However, this rate will be heavily influenced by Venezuela, which should present a negative performance (-25%).
BRAZIL REMAINS THE 8TH LARGEST GLOBAL ECONOMY
Despite low growth in 2018, Brazil remains the eighth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP, a position that it should retain until 2021, according to the IMF’s estimate. In terms of percentage growth, Brazil was placed 40th in a ranking of 42 countries, according to a survey conducted by the consultants, Austin Rating. The growth of only 1.1% put the country below the global average of 3.3% of the countries surveyed. The difference in relation to the countries of the BRICS group was even greater. Mean growth in the group was 5.1%.
India led the Austin ranking with 7.5% growth for the year, followed by China, with 6.6% in 2018. Austin Rating’s chief economist, Alex Agostini, says that the Brazilian rate of investment in relation to GDP is very low (15.8% in 2018). Countries like China and India invest between 30% and 40% of their GDP to keep growth above 6%, Agostini says. He believes that if Brazil were to invest at least 30% of its GDP, it could grow by up to 5% per year.
PIB Brasileiro X Posição em relação à economia mundial
Brazilian GDP X Position in relation to the global economy
Ano
Year
PIB (R$ bilhões)
GDP (R$ billion)
Crescimento (%)
Growth (%)
Posição
Position
2018
6.827
1,10%
8a
2017
6.559
1,10%
8a
2016
6.266
-3,60%
9a
2015
5.904
-3,80%
9a
2014*
5.521
0,10%
7a
2013
5.157
2,70%
7a
2012
4.713
1,80%
7a
2011
4.143
2,70%
6a
2010
3.675
7,50%
7a
2009
3.143
-0,30%
8a
Fonte: IBGE. (*) O IBGE fez os cálculos de 2014 com base em uma nova metodologia internacional, adotada por diversos países, e também revisou os dados do PIB nos dois anos anteriores. Em 2012, a taxa passou de 1% para 1,8%. Em 2013, de 2,5% para 2,7%.
Source: IBGE. (*) The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) based the 2014 calculations on a new international methodology adopted in several countries, and also revised the GDP rate for the two prior years. In 2012, the rate increased from 1% to 1.8%. In 2013, from 2.5% to 2.7%.
10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00%
-2,00% -4,00% -6,00%
6.559
6.827
4.713 4.143
5.521 5.157
6.266 5.904
3.675 3.143
2017: 8a economia mundial
2007: 8th global economy
2009 2010
2011 2012 2013
2014* 2015
2016 2017 2018
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