Page 41 - Cormorant Issue 20 2017

by squeezing smaller players, and slights are returned with signi cant interest. Failure is ne if its costs are laid off on others, and at the end of the day, it is the brand and its image that matters most. Nor does he worry about the principles of such an approach, proclaiming his pride in such tactics,
as when discussing a tax write-off that meant he paid no Federal income taxes—“that makes me smart”—because they have conveyed great wealth and apparent success to him and his family.
As its pro le in the eyes of world is increasingly shaped into ‘per de America’ by the administration’s unreliability, the less the nation will be able to continue as a leader within the global order. While
the recourse to a particular form of dollar diplomacy to curry favor with the administration will be a facet
of the coming years, personal tributes should not be confused with formal and functional relations. In the latter, there will be a necessary adjustment as other states amend their stance towards the US as they recognize the peril in negotiations according to a model which intends to fundamentally disfavor one party. They further cannot enter agreements with a President whose mood tomorrow will force a renege. Nor can they express amity towards a partner whose hurt feelings will embarrass them to their own people. If this is the obvious and rational response to an actor like Trump, the margins of revelatory analysis will be in those cases where another state does attempt normal relations.
All of this matters not just as another tale of woe regarding the Trump administration. Whether one reads this shift in America’s place in the world
as disaster or destiny, recognition that Per dious America is a growing global perception will require
a reorientation in two key areas. First is in how the foreign affairs community analyses and advises on American policy to take account of the new status
of an altered, if not diminished, freedom of action abroad. Any output which does not will be interesting but irrelevant acts of navel gazing. Although this prospect is disappointing to consider for its causes, it also presents this intellectual community to address their subject from long forgotten perspectives. Too
long a driving force in international relations, it will
be interesting to see how this sector adapts to a new American reality. Second, and most importantly, is the international community, both in aggregate and individually. It would be foolish to recommend an activist diplomatic and policy agenda with the United States under Trump. At the same time, there is nothing to be gained in overt antagonization of the President or the Administration. How adversaries and enemies will interact with this dynamic creates
a fraught international setting for the short term. Looking further into the future, the important actors are allies and the survival of critical relationships.
For these, with an eye towards the long range regularization, the best approach might be something resembling a benign neglect that creates an effective freeze in new initiatives and maintaining the steady state of existing agreements. That this relies upon
the politicians and peoples of these states valuing
the American relationship enough to exercise such strategic diplomatic patience means that it should be expected that some bonds will be irrevocably broken, with consequent loss to the larger international system.
Built upon the ashes of a war begun for diplomatic unreliability, the system of international relations which has governed for eight decades is imperiled
by the very same forces. Eliminating every other characteristic of the man and his presidency, reliability has the capacity to determine the course of US foreign relations more than any other. Coming to terms with this intellectually and practically will require signi cantly new and different thinking than has been imagined in any recent moment. For good or ill, it will certainly be interesting times ahead.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author.
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