Page 71 - Microsoft Word - 20120528 Unesco study

monetary terms; This requirement does not hold for non-
monetary methods and different sorts of effects are then
aggregated according to standardization procedures to
produce a more or less explicit standardization.
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Monte Carlo simulation Level III probabilistic calculation method where a large number
of simulations are performed. In each simulation, numbers are
drawn randomly from the distribution functions associated
with the parameters in the strength and loading models,
subsequently the value of the limit state function is calculated
for the joint draw. The number of times that Z is smaller than
zero is divided by the total number of simulations to estimate
the total probability of failure.
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Multi-criteria Evaluation method Embraces a number of methods; This not illustrates a
representative set of methods, including “weighted sums”,
“characteristic value method (Eigenvalue method)”,
“permutation method”, “concordance method”, and
“multidimensional scaling method”.
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Opportunity cost Benefits associated with the best alternative on offer (missed
opportunity); given perfect competition (maximum
effectiveness), every good or service would be used in such a
way that its value is greater than or equal to its opportunity
cost.
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Overflowing Water flow over the crest own of the defense because the
water level in front is higher than the defense crown or crest.
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Participation methods Including “goal fabric analysis”, these are concerned to involve
the interested parties as closely as possible in the decision
making.
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Process model uncertainty All models are an abstraction of reality and can never be
considered true. They are thus subject to process model
uncertainty. Measured data versus modeled data comparisons
give an insight into the extent of model uncertainty but do not
produce a complete picture.
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Resilience Ability of a system or defense to react to and recover from the
damaging effect of realized hazards.
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Resistance The ability of a system to remain unchanged by external
events.
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Risk Risk is a functional of probability, exposure and vulnerability.
Often, in practice, exposure is incorporated in the assessment
of consequences, therefore risk can be considered as having
two components, the probability that an event will occur and
the impact (or consequence) associated with that event.
1
Risk analyses A methodology to objectively determine risk by analyzing and
combining probabilities and consequences.
1
Risk mapping The process of establishing the spatial extent of risk (combining
information on probability and consequences). Risk mapping
requires combining maps of hazards and vulnerabilities. The
results of these analyses are usually presented in the form of
maps that show the magnitude and nature of the risk.
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Scenario A plausible description of a situation, based on a coherent and
internally consistent set of assumptions. Scenarios are neither

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