Page 72 - Microsoft Word - 20120528 Unesco study

predictions nor forecasts. The results of scenarios (unlike
forecasts) depend on the boundary conditions of the scenario.
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Sensitivity Refers to either: the resilience of a particular receptor to a
given hazard. For example, frequent sea water flooding may
have considerably greater impact on a fresh water habitat,
than a brackish lagoon; or: the change in a result or conclusion
arising from a specific perturbation in input values or
assumptions.
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Sensitivity Analyses The identification at the beginning of the appraisal of those
parameters which critically affect the choice between the
identified alternative course of action.
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Shadow pricing Corrected price: for example, when the price of the labor
decreases by 50 percent when unemployment is high.
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Statistical inference y uncertainty Formal quantification of the uncertainty of estimating the
population from a sample. The uncertainty is related to the
extent of data and variability of the data that make up the
sample.
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Statistical model uncertainty Uncertainty associated with the fitting of a statistical model.
The statistical model is usually assumed to be correct.
However, if two different models fit a set of data equally well
but have different extrapolations/interpolations then this
assumption is not valid and there is statistical model
uncertainty.
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Summary table method This includes the “planning balance sheet”, “goals achievement
matrix” and “score map methods”.
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System An assembly of elements, and the interconnections between
these elements, constituting a whole and generally
characteristic by its behavior.
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Uncertainty A general concept that reflects our lack of sureness about
someone or something, ranging from just short of complete
sureness to an almost complete lack of conviction about an
outcome.
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Validation Is the process of comparing model output with observations of
the ‘real world’.
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Variability The change over time of the value or state of some parameter
or system or element where this change may be systemic,
cyclical or exhibit no apparent pattern.
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Variable – nominal The variables with a nominal scale have only an identity
characteristic: for example, soil types like clay, sand, gravel, silt
etc.
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Variable- ordinal Ordinal variables have an identity characteristic as well as a
ranking without a fixed value scale.
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Variable- interval This variable has an identity characteristic, a ranking value, and
a fixed measurement: for example, a temperature expressed
in degrees Celsius.
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Variable- ratio This variable has an identity characteristic, a ranking value, a
fixed measurement and a fixed “zero” point.

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Verification Is the process of checking the values of the variables that are
used as input values for the calculation or simulation for a

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