Page 74 - World Airnews Magazine October Edition 2020

COLUMN

QUO VADIS AVIATION?

By Des Bishop

approximately 3.5 million job

losses in commercial aviation
here are you going is a worldwide, and several hundred
Wtypical Lati n transla- airliners withdrawn from service
tion of the phrase ‘quo vadis’. Avi- prematurely. Current full year

ation experts worldwide have been predictions for 2020, January to

December, estimate an overall

debating and strategizing on this reduction of 50% of seats offered

in the context of how to deal with by airlines, equivalent to an overall

the single biggest threat to aviation reduction of 2,6 million passengers

ever, worse than WWI and WWII, the and an approximately $385 billion
Covid 19 pandemic. potential loss of gross passenger

Frustratingly, any form of foresight- operating revenues.
ing or futures thinking is virtually Air passenger traffic will in all

impossible in predicting the future likelihood experience an overall

pathway for aviation since 2020 reduction of air passengers (both

threw down the gauntlet to aviation international and domestic) rang-

and asked, where are you going, ing from 53% to 59% compared
aviation? to 2019 (ICAO). Simultaneously,

Within the defence aerospace com- airports estimate a loss of over

munity, because of the target market, 50% of passenger traffic and

the disruption was significantly less 57% or over $97 billion in airport
than that for commercial operations revenues compared to business as

while freight operations were also usual (ACI).

less negatively affected than that of The adverse cascading effect on

commercial transport operations. tourism will in all probability see

Is there anyone out there that has a decline in international tourism

any idea of what aviation will look receipts of between $910 to 1,170
like in the short term? Not one of billion in 2020, compared to the
the so-called ‘soothsayers’, ‘sieners’, tions he would be asking. Most probably, $1.5 trillion generated in 2019 (UN-

‘fortune tellers’ or ‘astrologers’ that are “WIHIHH” which literally means: “What WTO). Trade, likewise could experience a

usually so keen to flood newspapers, TV In Hell Is Happening Here”. Just what he significant decrease in global merchandise

and magazines with their predictions for would of thought of the current state of trade volume by between 13% and 32% in

the year 2020, came even close to predict- aviation affairs is anybody’s guess. 2020 compared to 2019 (WTO) and last but

ing the disaster awaiting the world and in by no means least, the global economy is

turn, commercial aviation. Will the demand for air travel ever projected at a - 4.9% to -5.2% contraction

One can only wonder what sage strate- return to the pre-2020 levels? Most in world GDP in 2020, significantly worse

gic advice would have been forthcoming travellers were either vacationing, touring, than during the 2008/09 financial crisis

visiting friends and relatives, attending

from Flight International’s, ‘Uncle Roger’. conferences or attending business meet- (IMF and World Bank).

As far back as 1957, Roger Bacon, Flight ings. Certainly, the requirement for in- So, who is prepared to hazard a best
International’s satirical columnist, ran ter-personal communications will continue guess in the medium term? In the final

a diary column on the back page of the to exist but the means of communication analysis, market demand will determine

monthly copy with humorous pieces such across the planet is ever on the increase and re-define the future of commercial avi-
as “Straight and Level” (S&L) and ‘Hoskins’ through technology such as Zoom, ation – and market demand will be a direct

that delighted Flight International readers Facebook, Facetime, etc, which now even function of traveller confidence. Business

for so many years. 'Uncle Roger's' witty enables conference attendance around and charter operations will in all likelihood

photo captions, often depicting a gear-up the world without stepping outside of recover first but best estimates are that

landing or otherwise wrecked aeroplane one’s home. Alternate methods of com- commercial aviation will only return to

with the speech bubble: “Bit late on the munication now exist and the fidelity and 2019 levels by 2024.

roundout again there, Hoskins?” was reality of such communications is growing The concern, however, is that during this

always the backdrop to one or other con- exponentially. time, a significant percentage of aviation

tentious aviation event. He had a wicked jobs, will have succumbed to technological

sense of aviation humour and the column The Covid 19 carnage resulted in innovation and the loss of a significant

invented a string of characters who amount of experienced personnel.
brought the S&L column to life: Capt Rebuilding commercial aviation will

Speaking (airline pilot), Monty Or- take several years.
angeball (tabloid aviation reporter) Spare a thought for all those who

and Rollo Freelunch (aviation PR have invested a lifetime following their

man). Scruggs Aviation was a barely passion in aviation; and then there are

disguised forbear of today’s BAe Sys- the youngsters at flying, technical and

tems, and Budgie News was actually air traffic training schools who will now

Flight International itself. be questioning their career choices, all

Sadly, ‘Uncle Roger’ passed away asking the same question: “Quo Vadis

in 2019 and one wonders what ques- Aviati on?” Q
w
orld Airne
W World Airnews | October 2020s | December 2017
— 4 —
— 48 —