Page 60 - World Airnews Magazine April 2021

NEWS DIGITAL

SHORTAGE AFTER COVID-19,

STUDY SAYS

by Rich Thomaselli

the cost of training.
The ‘momentary reprieve’ will not last, and decisions taken
The aviation industry is already facing a pilot shortage, a today to survive the coronavirus pandemic may threaten the
problem that has lessened over the last year due to the coronavi- ability of airlines in some regions to recover and grow in the
rus pandemic, which has resulted in travel restrictions and far less future.
flights taking to the air than normal. In recent years, airlines have provided a more direct path to
But whenever air travel gets back to normal, or thereabouts, the cockpit for new pilots, expanding cadet training programmes
the pilot shortage issue is only going to be exacerbated, according and providing financing. With COVID, many of the airline pipeline
to a new study performed by New York- and London-based levers have come under pressure.
consultancy Oliver Wyman. Faced with mounting costs and a pilot surplus, cadet programs
The group called the COVID-19 outbreak a “momentary are being trimmed. Some of the banks that have supported the
reprieve” for the issue of pilot shortages. For passenger recovery, financing are reconsidering the risk profile of a new pilot cadet.
estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond. “Looking at past crises such as 9/11 and the global financial
For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and crisis (of 2008), new pilot certifications fell 30 to 40 percent during
utilization rather than passengers. When that returns to normal, the five years after the initial shock,” Oliver Wyman noted.
airlines are going to find themselves with a shortage rather than a “With the global nature of this shock, we believe 25,000 to
surplus, as is the case at the moment. 35,000 current and future pilots may choose alternative career
Oliver Wyman noted that the root cause of the coming shortage paths over the next decade.”
varies by region, but in the U.S. it’s particularly troublesome. The The company concluded that it is not a question of whether a
country has an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, pilot shortage will occur, but when it will occur and how large the
fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including gap will be between supply and demand. Q

Photo by Jon Flobrant on Unsplash

World Airnews | April Extra 2021
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