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1.1 Overview and Purpose
This Population Assessment provides a high level strategic analysis of care and support needs of citizens and support needs of carers across West Wales. It assesses the extent to which those needs are currently being met and identifies where further improvement and development is required to ensure that individuals get the right support and are able to live fulfilled lives.
The Assessment has been undertaken to meet new requirements under Part 2 of the Social Services and Wellbeing (Wales) Act 2014 (SSWB Act). Section 14A of the Act requires that local authorities (LAs) and Local Health Boards (LHBs) jointly carry out an assessment of the needs for care and support, and the support needs of carers, in the LA’s area. These assessments must then be combined into a single report for the LHB footprint before being signed off by each of the LAs and the LHB.
The Population Assessment will be a key driver for the integration and transformation of care and support in West Wales over the coming period. The Regional Partnership Board (RPB), which has been established under Part 9 of the Act and has responsibility for promoting integration and a partnership approach to service improvement, will use the Assessment to test its existing priorities and identify other areas on which it needs to focus. Over the next few months the RPB will lead on the development of an Area Plan which will set out those areas of change identified within the Assessment which will be addressed collaboratively over the coming three to five years. The Area Plan will link with existing strategic plans of the partner agencies and wider wellbeing goals and actions overseen by the three Public Service Boards (PSBs), thus ensuring a focused, consistent approach to change.
Population Assessments will be undertaken every five years and will be refreshed mid-cycle, allowing unforeseen changes in need to be addressed and progress to be monitored. This will enable us to accelerate the pace of change where necessary and to share examples of success across the region and beyond.
1.2 West Wales population profile
The West Wales region covers three LA areas – Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire - and is coterminous with the Hywel Dda University Health Board (HDUHB) footprint. The population of the region is estimated at 384,000. 47.9% of the population live in Carmarthenshire, 20.7% in Ceredigion and 31.4% in Pembrokeshire.
The total population is predicted to rise to 425,000 by 2033, with a rise in those aged over 65 from 88,200 in 2013 to 127,700 by 2033.
There are fewer people aged 25-44 and more people aged over 55 compared with the rest of Wales. Similarly, there is a higher ratio of people aged 75 and over (10.3%
West Wales Population Assessment March 2017 Executive Summary