Page 105 - PROOF_ENG

103
Of note is the expected significant rise in the numbers of people aged 75 and over with a moderate or severe learning disability, estimated to increase by 33% by 2030. Current numbers and projections for each part of the region are as follows:
Figure 10:1 Numbers (current and predicted) of people aged 75 and over with a moderate or severe learning disability
Carmarthenshire Ceredigion Pembrokeshire Region
Source: Daffodil Cymru
2015 2030
38 57 16 23 27 40 81 122
Whilst the predicted rise is less than that for Wales as a whole over this period, there are clear implications for care and support services as older people with learning disabilities encounter other age-related conditions, are less likely to receive support from family and friends and are therefore more likely to present with more complex needs than they would at a younger age.
Autism is a pervasive developmental disorder that is thought to affect 1 in 100 people in the population (Baird et al, 2006). The research shows that there is a high rate of co morbidity between Neuro-developmental disorders (ND) e.g. Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD)/Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), and also of other mental health disorders. Research suggests that based on the population of Hywel Dda UHB:
• 1%ASD,2-4%ADHD
• 70%ADHD/ASDco-morbidity
• 40%ASDanxietydisorder
• 90%prisonersmentaldisorderincludingND • 30%IPeatingdisordershaveASD
• 40%specialistsubstancemisuseND
The current demand for the ASD diagnostic service is based on a pattern of referral which is likely to be an underestimation of the actual population’s need. Local data on referrals for ASD diagnostic services shows that for the period January 2013 – end of November 2015 there were 265 referrals. However, since April 2016, the service has received 99 referrals.
West Wales Population Assessment March 2017 Learning disability and autism