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         Burgernomics
         For a number of years the British magazine The                      exchange rate, a Big Mac cost only $1.83. In
         Economist has produced an annual comparison                         Switzerland, though, the price was $5.98.
         of the cost in different countries of one particu-                    The Big Mac index suggested that the
         lar consumption item that is found around the                       euro would eventually fall against the dollar:
         world—a McDonald’s Big Mac. The magazine                            a Big Mac on average cost €3.31, so that
         finds the price of a Big Mac in local currency,                     the purchasing power parity was $1.08 per
                                                  Photodisc
         then computes two numbers: the price of a Big                       €1 versus an actual market exchange rate
         Mac in U.S. dollars using the prevailing ex-                        of $1.39.
         change rate, and the exchange rate at which                           Serious economic studies of purchasing
         the price of a Big Mac would equal the U.S.  U.S. price should offer some guidance about  power parity require data on the prices of many
         price. If purchasing power parity held for Big  where the exchange rate will eventually end up.  goods and services. It turns out, however, that
         Macs, the dollar price of a Big Mac would be the  In the July 2009 version of the Big Mac  estimates of purchasing power parity based on
         same everywhere. If purchasing power parity is  index, there were some wide variations in the  the Big Mac index usually aren’t that different
         a good theory for the long run, the exchange  dollar price of a Big Mac. In the U.S., the price  from more elaborate measures. Fast food
         rate at which a Big Mac’s price matches the  was $3.57. In China, converting at the official  seems to make for pretty good fast research.




                                          Over the long run, however, purchasing power parities are pretty good at predicting
                                       actual changes in nominal exchange rates. In particular, nominal exchange rates be-
                                       tween countries at similar levels of economic development tend to fluctuate around
                                       levels that lead to similar costs for a given market basket. In fact, by July 2005, the nom-
                                       inal exchange rate between the United States and Canada was C$1.22 per US$1—just
                                       about the purchasing power parity. And by 2008, the cost of living was once again
                                       higher in Canada than in the United States.



           figure 42.4

           Purchasing Power Parity         Exchange rate
           versus the Nominal            (Canadian dollars
                                          per U.S. dollar)
           Exchange Rate,                         C$1.60
           1990–2008                                         Nominal exchange rate
           The purchasing power parity between      1.40
           the United States and Canada—the
           exchange rate at which a basket of
           goods and services would have cost       1.20
           the same amount in both countries—                                     Purchasing power parity
           changed very little over the period      1.00
           shown, staying near C$1.20 per US$1.
           But the nominal exchange rate fluctu-
           ated widely.                               1990   1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008
           Source: OECD.
                                                                                                        Year









        428   section 8     The Open Economy: Inter national Trade and Finance
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