Page 8 - The EDGE Winter 2022

2022 ELECTION

BY DON HARRIS
Paul Bentz
Looking Ahead to 2022 Election – It Won’t Be Easy

AASBO members got a glimpse of what to expect Referring to the 2020 election in which Joe Biden
in the November 2022 General Election, plus some defeated Donald Trump for President, Bentz, noting
advice on how to deal with almost certain challenges. that Trump created skepticism about the results, said:
Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President of Research and “At the end of day all ballots were counted, and I do
Strategy for HighGround Inc., offered his views at believe they were all counted correctly.”
the November Bi-Monthly Membership Meeting, an
in-person event that was also streamed live. Based on On voter turnout, Bentz said 2020 was the second
previous election cycles, Bentz predicted that it will highest in Arizona history – 79.9%, surpassed only by
likely be a good year for Republicans and that voter 80.1% in 1980. But in a non-presidential year, turnout
turnout will be significantly less than it was for the traditionally drops. “Even though the governor’s race
2020 presidential election. impacts a lot of our school issues, turnout will be
down significantly,” he said. A total of 3.4 million
votes were cast in the 2020 General Election, but only
1.4 million in the primary. And for the November 2,
2021, election on school bonds and overrides, turnout
in Maricopa County was only 21%, he said.

Bentz said he expects the Arizona turnout to be
around 60%, possibly a little higher. In 2020, the
Republicans who cast ballots had a 2.9% advantage
over Democrats who actually voted. Now, Bentz said
he expects a Republican advantage of at least 8%.

“Arizona is not turning blue,” Bentz said. “It’s still
mostly red.”

He cited a significant shift in the electorate during the
past decade, especially along the Loop 101 corridor,
that generated a change in the Legislature. What was a
Republican super majority has dwindled to a one-vote
advantage in the House and Senate. “Pay attention
when it comes to redistricting, those areas will make
a huge difference of where the Legislature goes over
next 10 years as we see a shift toward blue.”

But most suburban and rural areas are “getting
redder,” he said.

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8 THE EDGE WINTER 2022