Page 10 - The EDGE Winter 2022

Looking Ahead to 2022 Election – It Won’t Be Easy
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Bentz calls 2022 “the year of the independents,” the anchor is the Republican front-runner for governor,
unaffiliated voters. While independents comprise more with former Congressman Matt Salmon a close
than one-third of Arizona’s registered voters, they second. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat
under-participate in elections. He estimated that 24% who gained positive national attention questioning
will vote in the midterm election, but nevertheless will a partisan audit of votes in Maricopa County, is
have a huge impact. “No party can win a statewide considered the favorite to win the nomination for
office without the help of independent, unaffiliated, governor, he said.
voters,” Bentz said. They oppose a flat income tax,
banning of masks and they support schools, he In primary elections, Bentz said, Democrats generally
explained. run to the left and Republicans to the right, but
move toward the center for the General Election. He
Independents tend to break slightly more Democratic questioned whether Republicans will be able to make
on issues, but that’s not always true, he said. In the that shift in 2022.
governor’s race, they could make a huge difference,
depending on whether they like the candidate. “Talk about what you are doing,

In the 2021 race for governor in Virginia, Republican what you are teaching, what your
Glenn Youngkin defeated a popular Democrat, even districts are doing is more important
getting more votes than Trump did in 2020. The
Republican shifted the narrative away from Trump than talking about what you’re not.”
and to issues that people care about, like schools and
education, Bentz said. “There is a significant amount of pessimism in the
electorate right now,” Bentz said. “As we go through,
Bentz told AASBO members the 2022 elections need whether it’s the Covid hangover, environmental
to be “an all hands on deck experience.” Concerned conflicts or school issues, the majority thinks the state
parents are not terrorists, he said, adding, “We are not is headed in the wrong direction. In addition to schools
co-parenting with government.” being a stand-in right now for the cultural conflicts, it
will be pushed even further in some primaries. Pay
Among the issues facing schools in 2022 is the attention to the primaries. The election starts in July
statutory expenditure limit. Unless the Legislature acts when the early ballots go out for the primary. What
by March, schools would lose $1.2 billion in spending candidates are saying in July is significant.”
capability. On mask mandates, Bentz cautioned that
“some legislators are going to make your life difficult Bentz emphasized to his AASBO audience: “Message
– don’t think the session is going to be easier.” In discipline will be essential for school districts. Talk
addition, school boards will be targeted, with a strong about what you are doing, what you are teaching,
effort to get more conservative candidates elected, he what your districts are doing is more important than
said. talking about what you’re not. We don’t teach critical
race theory. We do have the Constitution in every
In his November presentation, Bentz gave a rundown classroom. We do say the Pledge of Allegiance. Talk
on the statewide races, including for U.S. Senate, about the awesome stuff you are doing, not about what
governor, attorney general, superintendent of you are against.”
public instruction, and treasurer. He suggested that
Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, Paul Bentz can be reached at: pbentz@azhighground.com
will be difficult to defeat. Kari Lake, a former TV

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10 THE EDGE WINTER 2022