Page 20 - Hello Philippines January 2016 'B' issue

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WITH the Supreme Court of the
Philippines rendering a decision that
the Enhanced Defense Cooperation
Agreement is constitutional it brings,
to fore the need to establish what this
agreement means for the country and
what is to be realistically expected
from it.
Stretching VFA limitations. For
starters, if one has been observing
American military activities in the
Philippines since 2001 one will see a
pattern of activity that shows a clear
effort to stretch the legal limitations of civilian and military operations in
the Visiting Forces Agreement that had
been ratified by the Philippine Senate
in 1999.
It must be remembered that the VFA
governed the conduct of United States
military activities in the Philippines
involving mostly exercises as these
were curtailed by the non-renewal
of the Military Bases Agreement in
1992 and the legal limbo that resulted
thereafter that affected the annual
bilateral military exercises between the
two countries such as Balikatan.
The Chinese seizure of Mischief
Reef in 1994 to 1995 created an added
reason to push for an agreement that
would reinvigorate the alliance that had
been hit badly by the bases withdrawal.
As the Philippine military itself
which had been greatly dependent
on US military assistance was badly
affected by the loss of the enormous
subsidy and support derived from the
annual financial and materiel grants
in exchange for the bases, assurances
of a renewal of American support for
modernization was also used as a come
on to have the VFA passed.
When that agreement was passed,
for several years the activities of the
two countries centered mainly on the
annual bilateral exercises and there
was even an effort by the Philippines
with United States’ support to establish
a multilateral humanitarian assistance
and disaster response mechanism.
Most of these efforts were directed
to face the looming threat from China,
which then was described as a rising
regional hegemon.
The war on terrorism. However,
in 2001 the direction of US national
security priorities drastically changed
following the attacks on September 11
at New York and Washington DC. This
greatly affected American priorities in
the Philippines and saw a shift in the
conduct of activities between the two.
Even before 9-11, the Americans
had been greatly concerned about
the inability of Philippine security
and defense agencies to get a grip on
the situation in Western Mindanao
especially in defeating the Abu Sayyaf
Group. The disaster of the Sipadan
hostage crisis only exposed the failings
of the Philippines especially in matters
of training and equipment and even
prior to 9-11 the US Pacific Command
had offered a modestly funded training
program for special forces of the
Philippine military.
Thoroughly angered by the Al
Qaeda attacks on American soil, the
US government resolved to bring
the fight to that terrorist group and
its affiliates and that resulted in the
fundamental shift in 2002 of Balikatan
away from confronting regional issues
in theoretical hypothetical scenarios
against imagined regional hegemons
to undertaking what amounted to US
support of Philippine counter terrorism
efforts.
The United States government
sought for and obtained Philippine
government consent to have US military
units embedded in Philippine military
installations and even to the extent that
American consultants were present in
the Department of National Defense.
The plan was to rehabilitate the
Philippine defense establishment from
top to bottom and to do that, a Joint
Defense Assessment was conducted
in the first few years following 9-11
and this assessment became the basis
for the Philippine Defense Reform
Program and the adoption of American
methods of defense planning such as
the Multi Year Capability Planning
System and the much revered Defense
System of Management or DSOM that
according to some critics is one of the
factors that causes Philippine military
modernization to move slowly and
protractedly.
In Mindanao, US military personnel
were not only active in training but in
providing intelligence support among
others to Philippine security forces
engaging Al Qaeda affiliates.
To do this, the Americans had to
establish a semi-permanent presence
within some Philippine civil and
military facilities all throughout the
country. The footprint was small but
it preceded what the EDCA would be
calling for much later and it exceeded
what the VFA had originally intended.
There was speculation that the war
on terrorism was actively utilized by
the Americans to make the Philippines
more receptive to US military presence
especially when the time came to
confront China again.
Ironically, although the VFA was
earlier declared to be the means
upon which the Philippine military
may seek its much elusive dream of
modernization, the reverse happened.
American insistence on an emphasis
on the war on terrorism had the
corresponding effect of making the
Philippine military more inward
looking than in any moment in its
existence especially when a decision
was made by the Department of
National Defense and the top command
of the Armed Forces of the Philippines
to dismantle the fighter jet capability
NEWS
Should the Philippine military be focused on internal security conflicts? File Photo by Dante Diosina expected to undertake actions that will
of the Philippine Air Force in 2004 as it
was deemed not necessary for national
security. A foolhardy decision made at
the very time the Chinese were making
great strides in capability development.
PH assumptions on EDCA. With
EDCA declared constitutional, the
Philippines is touting this as a positive
step in the territorial disputes in
the West Philippine Sea and in the
provision of Humanitarian Assistance
and Disaster Response in times of
national calamity.
Again, we hear the assumption
that EDCA will bring about the much
needed modernization of the AFP.
Naturally that is an overly optimistic
take on EDCA’s effect on the defense and
security sector of the Philippines except
of course for HA/DR (humanitarian
assistance and disaster response) which
tremendously benefits from US military
participation when disasters strike the
country.
Although EDCA envisions a larger
footprint for American activities
and presence in the Philippines
this is premised on the objective to
symbolically show the Philippines,
other countries, and China that the
United States is physically present in
the region.
It is not to be interpreted as a
guarantee that the United States will
automatically side with the Philippines
in the territorial disputes as the most
likely American activities will center
on symbolic bilateral and multilateral
exercises directed at China, showing
the flag in freedom of navigation patrols
and a ramping up of monitoring efforts
to establish domain awareness when
it comes to tracking Chinese military
presence in the region.
The position of the US government
that it will not take sides in the disputes Filipinos in the WPS.
still stands. Hence, it is not to be
expected that the US Navy will come
to the aid of Filipino fishermen being
ejected from their traditional fishing
grounds which is a constitutionally
mandated task that the Philippine
government itself must do in the
defense of the citizens of the republic.
What will only spur the US into
military action is if the Chinese do
something outrageous such as sealing
off the entire South China Sea to
international air and maritime activities
or in an unprovoked Chinese attack on
a Philippine installation and vessel in
the WPS.
As for military modernization,
given the fact that after stripping
old Hamilton class cutters of useful
modern offensive capability, these
were then sold at bargain prices by
the US government to the Philippines,
it should be so evident that the era of
generous American military materiel
assistance is over and capability
enhancement is something that the
Philippine government should invest
heavily in and it needs to mobilize all
instruments of national power ranging
from government, economic, and
social forces if it ever wants to meet the
Chinese threat in an effective manner.
Anything less, like the manner in
which the modernization is progressing
now will be useless as China will
undertake more effective and stronger
measures to totally deny the Philippines
the ability to utilize the resources of the
West Philippine Sea within a year or so.
Still, even if the Philippine side harps
constantly about the unreliability of the
US as an ally and questions American
commitment to defend Philippine
national interests, the mere fact that
every side including the Chinese are
guessing what the Americans will do
provides a level of unpredictability
and thus is a deterrent to hostile and
aggressive unilateral military actions
by China given the overwhelming
military strength of the US vis-a-vis the
Chinese military.
That then should allow the
Philippines to creatively utilize its
limited assets since this Chinese
distraction with a heightened American
tempo of activity should provide Manila
with the necessary moral courage to
face off against Chinese harassment of
After all, the defense of innocent
Filipino fishermen does not detract
from the objective of the Philippines to
assume the moral high ground against
China in the eyes of the international
community, and perhaps allies like the
US may just be encouraged to support us
more if they see us resolutely defending
our interests in the WPS instead of
taking an overly passive posture.
January 2016 / Fortnightly – No. 2 • UK & Europe Edition
Chinese response. The Chinese are
send the message to the Philippines
that EDCA and a reliance on American
support will not bring the necessary
hoped for outcome.
The way they will do that is to build
up an image of overwhelming military
might that would serve to cow Filipinos
into thinking that China is at par with
the US or is even more powerful.
The artificial islands are already
serving that purpose as it projects such
an image to Manila thus making some
Filipino national leaders and opinion
makers receptive to suggestions of
seeking an accommodation with China.
China will continue to use their
maritime agencies or their white ships
to selectively target Philippine interests
in the WPS and this makes them
immune to engagement by the US Navy
thus reinforcing an image of Chinese
power and American impotence.
What of course is lost to the
Philippine side is that there are certain
aspects of a country’s national interests
that have to be unilaterally fought
for in the physical and not just in the
diplomatic or legal sense.
However that would be difficult
for the Philippines to conceive as the
malaise of defeatism and helplessness
increasingly gains ground within the
ranks of the country’s decision and
policy makers.
Real estate. In the end, whether
the Philippines likes it or not, whether
the Philippine Senate likes it or not,
whatever the Filipino leftist front
organizations want, even despite what
the Supreme Court decides in the future,
the writing is already on the wall.
The Philippines is the real estate of
the next probable battleground of the
21st Century.
The Philippines is the plug of the
that keeps the Chinese contained in
the South China Sea no matter how
many times Beijing will want to reclaim
artificial reefs until it practically paves
over the entire Spratlys into one
immense gargantuan slab of concrete,
or the Philippines is the gateway that
China will punch through toward
the Central Pacific if the Philippines
chooses to waver and give way.
The question is if our future leaders,
especially those who are currently
seeking the highest posts that can
be offered in the country, grasp that
concept and are capable of mobilizing
all the human and material resources of
the nation to face this challenge, or are
they unfortunately lost in the details of
their personal parochial interests? n Jose
Antonio A. Custodio is a security and defense consultant
and was a technical adviser for a US defense company
working for the US Pacific Command. He also specializes
in military history and has post-graduate studies in history
from the University of the Philippines. He also teaches
history and political science at several universities in
Metro Manila / Special to InterAksyon.com /January 14,
2016 / 9:34 am