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A worst-case EU exit scenario for the UK would be that of a No Deal Brexit: EU and UK negotiators fail to nd a compromise, and the UK leaves the EU without having reached a new free trade agreement, resulting in trade relations defaulting to WTO conditions. This scenario would lead to a long-term decline
in UK GDP growth. The impact on departures would be negative, but arrivals would grow.
The Light Brexit scenario would be more positive: the UK government relaxes its negotiating position over immigration in return for access to the single market and passporting rights to preserve London’s nancial sector. Under this scenario, UK GDP would grow, positively a ecting outbound travel, but dampening growth in inbound arrivals.
Outbound Departures from UK for Di erent Brexit Scenarios 2017–2025
RAIL REvOLUTION
110 105 100
95 90 85 80
2017 2018 2019
Baseline
2020 2021
Light Brexit
2022 2023 2024 2025 No Deal Brexit
Source: Euromonitor International
© 2017 Euromonitor International 40
Trips (million)
