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KENTUCKY DERBY

GRADE 1 - $3,000,000
3YO – 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)

GREAT UNKNOWNS REMOVED STATS & TRENDS

FROM DERBY 146 2019 DERBY HANDLE TOTALS
(Handle in Millions Except High Five)
By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow Pool Handle
Win/Place/Show $65.7
ANALYSIS: Ironically enough in 2020, it’s the uncertainty that’s GONE from this particular Exacta $26.0
Kentucky Derby that is the race’s biggest handicapping story. Gone are many of the questions Trifecta $34.7
of development in a tighter spring campaign; the hullabaloo of a massive crowd and its impact Superfecta $16.6
Super High Five $644K
on each horse’s psyche; and even, for some, the time-honored concern for a horse’s ability to
Pick Four $4.1
get the one mile and one-quarter trip (under 126 pounds, no less), thanks to the Travers.
Pick Five $4.0
Oaks/Derby Double $2.8
MAIN CONTENDERS: TIZ THE LAW left no boxes unchecked en route to Louisville. A Pick Six $1.1
Grade 1 winner at ages 2 and 3, the Florida Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers winner
rates odds-on favoritism to this eye, regardless of field size. Arazi was the last odds-on HIGHEST-PRICED DERBY RUNNERS
IN SUPERFECTA
favorite in 1992 (4-5, 12 betting interests); Tiz the Law has far fewer questions to answer.
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
He’s won his last 4 starts from between a half-length and 2 lengths off the lead, the
Odds Horse Year Fin.
perfect, pressing trip that’s finished first in the Derby every year since California Chrome 85.10 Instilled Regard 2018 4th
in 2014. ART COLLECTOR has run the table in the Kentucky region with wins at Churchill, 71.60 Closing Argument 2005 2nd
Keeneland’s Blue Grass and the Ellis Park Derby. His papa, Bernardini, won the Travers 65.20 Country House 2019 1st
and Jockey Club Gold Cup over the second half of his sophomore season while going this 50.60 Mine That Bird 2009 1st
50.30 Giacomo 2005 1st
distance. I’m not enthusiastic about him not working between Ellis and the Derby. KING
41.70 Limehouse 2004 4th
GUILLERMO has turned heads in the morning, and while his 4-month layoff (by design) is
40.00 Battle of Midway 2017 3rd
unconventional, I don’t consider it a disqualifier in today’s training methodology.
WORST FINAL PREP FINISH TO WIN DERBY
VALUE PLAYS: Everyone else will be inflated prices given the dominance of the favorites (Since 1906)
and the math that goes with pari-mutuel pools. HONOR A.P. is immensely talented and was Fin. Horse Year
12th Stone Street 1908
my preseason #1 in season 15 of the Countdown to the Crown scouting report. He will grind every
5th Iron Liege 1957
bit of the 10 furlongs, and his recent loss, coupled with Tiz the Law’s Travers masterpiece, might
5th Count Turf 1951
have inflated him from 5-1 to 10-1. As for the longshots that make Derby exotics play invigorating, 5th Doneraile 1913
they’re more often deep closers than pace players. Consider long-striding ENFORCEABLE with 5th Pink Star 1907
a chance to blow up the returns as the field spreads out on the backstretch. His Aug. 23 workout
?
was encouraging. To get a big return, I’ll have to move ENFORCEABLE up on the ticket. KNOW THIS

$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: BETTER LATE …
• $55 Exacta: TIZ THE LAW over ENFORCEABLE ($55). Three straight Kentucky Derby winners –
Always Dreaming, Justify and Country House –
• $12 Trifecta Part-Wheel: TIZ THE LAW with HONOR A.P., ART COLLECTOR,
came into their 3-year-old seasons as maidens
KING GUILLERMO with ENFORCEABLE ($36).
(had not yet won a race for the first time).
• $3 Exacta Part-Wheel: HONOR A.P., ART COLLECTOR, KING GUILLERMO over
ENFORCEABLE ($9).

TOP 4 PICKS

1. TIZ THE LAW 3. ART COLLECTOR
2. HONOR A.P. 4. ENFORCEABLE

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