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KENTUCKY DERBY

GRADE 1 - $3,000,000
3YO – 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)

THE EVIDENCE IS FOOLPROOF: KENTUCKY DERBY HISTORY

CASE CLOSED THE LAST...

By Jeff Siegel, @jsiegelracing FAVORITE TO WIN:
Justify (2018) at 2.90-to-1
ANALYSIS: There are several reasons to expect TIZ THE LAW will be the shortest-priced
(record-tying 6th straight favorite to win)
Kentucky Derby favorite since Arazi in 1991 and potentially the first odds-on choice to
win the Run for the Roses since Spectacular Bid 41 years ago. His dominating form is FAVORITE TO LOSE:
indisputable (each of his six wins have been accomplished by three lengths or more), Improbable (2019) was 4th at 4.00-to-1
and try as one might to find them, there are simply no concerns to fret about. A mile and
one-quarter? Done that. Speed figures? Rising with each start. Pace-dependent? Fast ODDS-ON FAVORITE TO COMPETE:
pace or slow pace, it doesn’t matter. Trainer? He’s already won a Derby. The effects of Arazi (1992) at .90-to-1
noise from a massive crowd? There won’t be anybody there. Silly jinxes like Dosage,
Apollo, being the favorite? Thankfully, we’ve run through them all. Okay, even in late 50-TO-1 SHOT OR HIGHER TO WIN:
summer, it’s still the Kentucky Derby and upsets occasionally do happen, but not in Country House (2019) at 65.20-to-1
2020. On the first Saturday in September, there will be no breaking the law.
JOCKEY TO WIN HIS DEBUT:

MAIN CONTENDERS: In addition to TIZ THE LAW, there are only two others to seriously Mario Gutierrez (2012) on I’ll Have Another
consider in the win pool. ART COLLECTOR has crossed the wire first in his last five starts (only 2 since 1980)
while giving every indication that further improvement is likely. His excellent tactical
JOCKEY TO WIN OAKS & DERBY SAME YEAR:
speed and the ability to win on the lead or from just off the pace guarantees a trouble-
free journey. However, while his numbers are strong, they’ll still need a significant jump to Calvin Borel (2009) with Rachel Alexandra and
match the favorite’s top figure. Santa Anita Derby winner HONOR A. P. has the grinding Mine That Bird
style to excel at 10 furlongs and has been working like a colt that is primed to produce a
TRAINER TO WIN HIS DEBUT:
career-top effort. To beat TIZ THE LAW, though, he’ll need it.
Art Sherman (2014) with California Chrome

VALUE PLAYS: MAX PLAYER has never taken a backward step, and while he was no
TRAINER TO WIN OAKS & DERBY SAME YEAR:
worry to TIZ THE LAW in either the Grade 1 Belmont or Grade 1 Travers, the Honor Code
Ben Jones (1952) with Real Delight & Hill Gail
colt was at least moving in the right direction in both races, finishing well to be third
while steadily making progress from the quarter pole to the wire. The Derby will be his
FILLY TO WIN:
third start off a layoff and it should be his best. Good enough to contribute to the vertical
Winning Colors (1988)
exotics? Possibly, yes.
FILLY TO COMPETE:
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY:
Devil May Care (2010), 10th
• $40 Exacta Part-Wheel: TIZ THE LAW over ART COLLECTOR, HONOR A.P. ($80).
• $20 Exacta: TIZ THE LAW over MAX PLAYER ($20). WIRE-TO-WIRE WINNER:
War Emblem (2002)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. TIZ THE LAW 3. HONOR A.P.
2. ART COLLECTOR 4. MAX PLAYER

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