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WHICH FACTORS FILL

YOUR DERBY TOOLBOX?

By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow

The 1/ST BET app uses more than 50 factors in evaluating each horse in a race, drawing from a library of more than
200,000 previous races to match past success with future success. 1/ST BET automatically finds and ranks the
proven, most successful factors in each race, and also gives you the ability to select your own set of factors to make
personalized, artificial intelligence-based selections in mere seconds. Once the final field is set for Kentucky Derby
146, the 1/ST INDEX selections for the big race will be published in our updated 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide
(available Sept. 4).

But which of the 50+ factors do you find most important when identifying your Derby horse? We tasked handicapper
Jeremy Plonk to provide his top-12 factors from the 1/ST BET app that fit his personal handicapping preferences for
the ‘Run for the Roses.’ Visit 1st.com/bet/betting-factors to learn more about each of the handicapping factors.

RACE RECORD FACTORS

Jeremy’s Take: If you include disqualified Maximum Security a year ago, every Derby winner from 2011-on entered the race off a
victory, and from 2012-on was undefeated as a 3-year-old. Look for the hot, proven hands.
• Win Percent: The percentage of races the horse has won in his career.
• Last Finish Position: The finish position of the horse in his most recent race.
• Horses beaten (% average placement last 5 races): This number looks at which position a horse finished in a race and
determines how many horses he beat in that race. For example, a horse who finishes 2nd in a 10-horse race defeats 8 horses,
or 80% of the field. That’s more impressive than a horse who finishes 2nd in a 6-horse field and defeats 4 horses, or 67% of
the field. A horse who is defeating a larger percentage of horses in his races is competing at a level where he is competitive.

PACE FACTORS

Jeremy’s Take: We haven’t seen a deep closer hit the wire first here since 2013, so early position in a speed or first-over spot has
taken top priority. But at 1-1/4 miles, those who have shown sustained, late speed also must be respected as the distances elongate.
• Avg. of last 3 E1 pace: Represents the average of the last 3 E1 pace figures the horse has earned (first portion of race).
• Avg. of last 3 E2 pace: Represents the average of the last 3 E2 pace figures the horse has earned (second portion of race).
• Last late pace: Represents how fast the horse ran at the end of his most recent race. Late pace is often a big factor in turf
(grass) races and in dirt races that are expected to have a fast early pace that could tire out competitors.
• Avg. of last 3 late pace: Represents the average of the last 3 late pace figures the horse has earned (final portion of race).

SPEED FACTORS

Jeremy’s Take: Brilliant speed-types have hit the wire first in every Derby following Orb in 2013. And given the propensity for rain on
Derby Day in recent years, it might be wise to cover that base as well.
• Best Lifetime Speed Number: This is the best speed number the horse has run in its lifetime, regardless of distance,
surface, or track condition.
• Speed Last Race: This number represents the speed number earned by the horse in his most recent race.
• Best Speed Last 3: When considering the horse’s last three races, this is the highest number earned in those three.
• Best Speed Off Track: The highest speed figure earned by the horse when running on an “Off Track” – wet tracks are most
often labeled ‘muddy’ or ‘sloppy.’ Use sparingly when the track is ‘fast’ (dry).

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