Page 4 - NTDA Market Outlook Q1 2024
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        Economic Overview


        Mixed Messages, Chances of a Recession, Inflation Trends, Commodity

        Prices…Continued from Page 3
                                                               In its monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA)
                                                               highlighted a surge in oil inventories "on water" due to the increased
                                                               journeys tankers are having to make to avoid the Red Sea, while
                                                               estimating that onshore oil stocks globally were at their lowest since
                                                               at least 2016.

                                                               The IEA also slashed its estimate of average 2024 oil supply by 930,000
                                                               b/d to 102.86 million b/d following the extension of OPEC+ voluntary
                                                               output cuts announced March 3, as well as cold weather that disrupted
                                                               Canadian production early in the year.
                                                               "Preliminary data for February show oil on water rose by an exceptionally
                                                               strong 84.7 million barrels. By contrast, on-land stocks fell for a seventh
        “As  per  capita  income  rises  so  does  the  demand  for  services,  the   consecutive month. Global crude oil inventories could remain below
        wealthier one is the more one will spend the majority of disposable   average levels in the near term after OPEC+ announced it will extend
        income on having people do things for them and therefore prices go   additional voluntary cuts through the second quarter," the IEA reported.
        up with demand. As machines and technology take on more of what
        workers used to do, the skills in demand revolve around these machines   The IEA's upward revision to this year's demand growth estimate still
        and the cost of that labor goes up. The bottom line from all this is that   leaves it less bullish than OPEC, which in its own monthly oil market
        service  sector inflation  is not  going  down  anytime  soon,”  said  Chris   report on March 12 maintained that demand would grow by 2.2 million
        Kuel, PhD, Managing Partners and Co-Founder of Armada Corporate   b/d this year, falling to 1.8 million b/d in 2025.  The IEA puts more
        Intelligence.                                          emphasis on the role of electric vehicle adoption in stemming demand
                                                               compared with OPEC.
        Production and Sales
        The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI failed to break into expansion territory,   Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights have forecast oil demand
        falling by 1.3 points in February to 47.8. December U.S. Retail and Food   to grow by 1.7 million b/d in 2024 followed by 1.08 million b/d in 2025.
        Services Sales contracted by 0.8% month over month (MoM), while the
        YoY US Producer Price Index increased by 0.9%.         Oil prices have shown steady increases as the crisis for Red Sea shipping
                                                               has intensified in recent months. The Platts Dated Brent benchmark was
        Industrial production edged up 0.1% in February after declining 0.5%   assessed at $84.27/b on March 13, up from $75.70/b on Jan. 2.
        in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8% and the
        index for mining climbed 2.2%. Both gains partly reflected recoveries  Cryptocurrencies
        from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5%   The price of Bitcoin is up 46.9% through the first two months of the year
        in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3%   thanks to a 45.9% surge in February alone. Ethereum is 44.2% higher in
        of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2%   2024, logging all that gain in February. Since the end of 2022, Bitcoin
        below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector   has jumped 275.9% and Ethereum has risen 181.4%.
        remained at 78.3% in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points
        below its long-run (1972–2023) average.                Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs
                                                               and Treasury Yields
        Housing                                                Treasury yields rose across the board even as equities rallied.
        MoM U.S. New single-family home sales increased 1.5% in January,   Intermediate  duration  instruments  posted  the  largest  increases;  the
        and MoM  U.S. Existing  Home Sales  increased  by 3.1% to  4.00M  in   2-year, 3-year, and 5-year all increased by 35 basis points or more.
        January. The median sales price of existing homes fell 0.6% to $379,100
        in January,  a seventh straight monthly decline putting it 7.6% below   Bond ETFs largely mimicked their January performances in February.
        its all-time high set in June 2023. Mortgage rates increased slightly in   The short-term SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) and iShares
        February; the 15-year Mortgage Rate rose to 5.94% as of February 29th,   Boxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) both inched higher. In long-term
        and the 30-year ended the month at 6.94%.              bonds, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 2.3% for the
                                                               second straight month.
        Commodities
        The price of Gold went largely unchanged in January to end the month  Equities, Inflation, and Milestones
        at $2,048.10 per ounce.                                Equities rallied across the board as the NASDAQ led the way with a 6.2%
                                                               gain. Both the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 posted gains of around
        Crude oil prices continued higher in February. (Brent crude was listed at   5.5%,  and  the  S&P  500 advanced 5.3%.  The  Dow  Jones  Industrial
        $85.85 USD as of March 22, 2024.) Higher oil prices led the average price   Average was the relative laggard but still rose 2.5%. All 11 sectors
        of gas to increase 13 cents per gallon in February, closing the month at   advanced higher in February. Consumer Discretionary led the way
        $3.37 per gallon.                                      with a 7.9% gain, followed by Industrials at 7.2% and Materials which
                                                               charged 6.5% higher.
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