Page 19 - UKRRptNov18

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.30%
-14.80%
4.10%
5.20%
0.20%
0.00%
-6.60%
-9.80%
2.30%
2.50%
3.40%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.80%
-14.90%
7.10%
15.70%
8.40%
6.90%
-8.30%
-20.70%
1.80%
7.80%
6.10%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.60%
-50.50%
3.90%
7.10%
5.00%
-6.70%
-24.00%
-9.20%
20.10%
18.20%
12.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.20%
-21.90%
11.20%
8.00%
-0.70%
-4.30%
-10.10%
-13.00%
2.80%
0.40%
3.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2 983
3516
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2 638
3086
CPI (eop)
22.30%
12.30%
9.10%
4.60%
-0.20%
0.50%
24.90%
43.30%
12.40%
13.70%
8.90%
CPI average
25.20%
15.90%
9.40%
8.00%
0.60%
-0.30%
12.10%
48.70%
13.90%
14.40%
11.90%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.90%
9.60%
8.90%
8.70%
8.20%
7.80%
9.70%
9.50%
9.70%
9.50%
8.80%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Through September, Ukraine’s economy grew by 3.8%, compared to the
same period in 2017, President Poroshenko said in a speech.
The IMF predicts 3.5% growth.
The World Bank has revised downward its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2018 to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.5% y/y, Lead Economist and Programme Leader covering Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine at the World Bank Faruk Khan said on October 4.
The nation's GDP grew by 3.8% y/y in March-June , according to Ukraine's state statistics service Ukrstat. The country’s real GDP rose by 3.1% y/y in January-March, or 0.9% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) revised the nation's 2019 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% year-on-year (vs 2.9% y/y in the previous forecast) due to the waning effects of higher social standards, the tight monetary conditions required to bring inflation back to its target, as well as tight fiscal policy resulting from the need to repay large volumes of public debt.
19 UKRAINE Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com