Page 20 - UKRRptNov18

In 2020, the real economy is expected to grow by 2.9% y/y. "Private consumption, additionally supported by rising remittances thanks to an increase in the number of labour migrants, will remain the main driver of economic growth in the medium-term," the NBU believes.
Meanwhile, investment growth will be restrained by businesses’ higher labour costs. However, the contribution of net exports will remain negative over the forecast horizon, as imports will satisfy a significant portion of domestic demand and capital investment needs, according to the regulator.
3.2 Macro outlook
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko expects gross domestic product (GDP) this year to grow to 4%. "This year the growth [of GDP] is expected to exceed 3%. And the indicator of the second quarter - and I am pleased to talk about it - exceeded the optimistic forecasts and amounted to 3.8% [the GDP growth] ... And we are definitely approaching the figure of 4% of GDP growth," he said at the opening of the tenth international economic forum "Innovations. Investments. Kharkiv Initiatives!" in Kharkiv.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook for Ukrainian GDP growth in 2019-2020, the funds said in its World Economic Outlook report released on October 8.
The fund lowered its estimate for the growth in Ukraine in 2019 to 2.7% from 3.3% projected in April.
In addition, the IMF worsened the forecast for GDP growth in 2020 to 3.4% from 4%, but improved this figure for 2018, to 3.5% from 3.2%.
The inflation forecast in 2018 was improved by 0.1 percentage points, to 10.9%, and in 2019 by 0.7 percentage points, to 7.3%.
20 UKRAINE Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com