Page 10 - GLNG Week 50 2020

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG

IOCs ought to start
considering how to
respond if their projects
in Mozambique are
disrupted by ASWJ
attacks.

to inflict severe violence to achieve its aims. United Nations High Commission for Refugees
Indeed, some observers believe more attacks (UNHCR), said earlier this week that the num-
are likely within Mozambique in the short term. ber of refugees now stood at 424,000 and was
For example, Janes, a UK-based military likely to rise.
intelligence consultancy, attached a pessimistic
headline – “Growing confidence of ASWJ mili- Seeking a solution
tants presages increasingly sophisticated attacks Tapsoba told Reuters he believed that Mozam-
over expanded area of operations in Mozam- bique ought to have help from neighbouring
bique’s Cabo Delgado” – to a comment pub- states in addressing the insurgency and all of the
lished online on December 14. It did so shortly disruptions that have emerged from it. “This is
after AFP quoted unnamed military sources a situation starting in one country, but if all the
as saying that the Islamist group might mount countries don’t get their act together to tackle
another campaign soon. it and wait too long, it could spread within the
This means that Total and other IOCs have sub-region,” he was quoted as saying by the news
good reasons to remain worried about security agency.
– and not just the security of their own con- Mozambique has made some efforts to secure
struction sites and facilities, but also the security assistance from nearby states. For example, in
of ports, roads and other infrastructure used to mid-November, it signed an agreement with
support their gas projects. Tanzania on joint operations against ASWJ.
Later in the same month, the Mozambican
A regional problem Minister of Defence met with senior officials
The companies may also wish to prepare for the from five member states of the Southern Afri-
possibility of more widespread instability in East can Development Community (SADC) to dis-
Africa. cuss responses to the Islamist group’s attacks.
Mozambique is not the only country in the Mozambican officials then held additional talks
region to be affected by ASWJ’s attacks, which with their counterparts from Botswana, South
are meant to bring the whole region under Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe earlier this
the control of an Islamist government loyal week.
to Islamic State. Several hundred members of So far, though, these discussions have not
the group staged an attack on Kitaya, a vil- led to the signing of any agreements or the for-
lage in Tanzania’s southern Mtwara region, in mulation of any strategies. As a result, there is a
October of this year. Since then, it has claimed very real chance that the conflict will not only
responsibility for three more attacks in the continue but worsen to the point where it threat-
same region. ens to hamper the activities of the companies
Meanwhile, recent events have led officials that hope to start extracting and processing gas
in Harare to fret about the possibility that the from fields located offshore Mozambique within
conflict may also spread across Mozambique’s the next few years. Total and other IOCs ought
north-western border into Zimbabwe. They to start considering, then, how to respond if
have also led hundreds of thousands of people their projects – Mozambique, Rovuma LNG
to flee Cabo Delgado Province in the hope of and Coral South LNG, which are expected to
escaping the conflict. Valentin Tapsoba, the require up to $60bn worth of investments – are
head of southern African operations at the disrupted by ASWJ attacks.™

P10 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 50 18•December•2020