Page 3 - Poland Outlook 2022

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1.0 Executive Summary

After a turbulent 2020 and 2021, marked by the pandemic – it has cost Poland
100,000 lives already – a presidential election, and a multitude of internal and
external conflicts, underpinned by growing macro-eoconomic problems, 2022
appears unlikely to offer any relief.

Poland is about to enter another election cycle amidst the apparently
accelerating disintegration of the Law and Justice (PiS) led government,
fighting an increasing number of battles at home and abroad. That promises
utter politicisation of pretty much everything, a trend that will be exacerbated
as PiS is shattering ever more norms and once untouchable principles on
which Poland has been built over the past three decades.

Politics will be underpinned by the macro-economic environment to a large
extent, because of accelerating inflation and a rising cost of living –
traditionally the bane of Polish governments.

Poland’s relations with the EU will continue to be tested in the context of
Brussels’ trying to make PiS roll back its flagship juidicial reforms. Another
conflict will continue over the EU’s climate policy, which the government has
blamed for the drastic increases in Poles’ electricity bills.

Finally, the turmoil in the east – the perceived threat of Russia invading
Ukraine, the possible revival of the migration crisis on the border with Belarus,
and Moscow manipulating gas prices in winter months – will add to the overall
sense of instability, possibly fuelling a complete remodelling of Polish politics
beyond the currently taken for granted confrontation between the PiS and the
liberals from the Civic Coalition (KO).

3 Poland Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com