Page 4 - Poland Outlook 2022

2.0 Political outlook

While Poland is not holding any elections in 2022, the country will be gripped
by the prospect of one the following year. With the ruling camp’s engine
sputtering more and more often, as the government hinges on a fickle majority
of two in the parliament, the next year in Polish politics will be a permanent
campaign ahead of the 2023 vote.

The increasingly dysfunctional government will face ever more problems next
year: the likely persistent inflation, the fallout of the COVID-19 (coronavirus)
pandemic, the spiking costs of energy are challenges that even the most
effective administration would have a hard time handling.

It appears, however, that the ruling coalition of Law and Justice (PiS), United
Poland (SP) plus some more or less obscure groupings and individual MPs is
losing its ability to make sustained – even if divisive – decisions.

That, at least in theory, should fuel the opposition’s efforts to consolidate
ahead of the election and offer voters an alternative after years of mere
reacting to what the PiS-led government has been doing.

The Hungary-style consolidation of the opposition around a single candidate
for a post-PiS prime minister is out of the question, however, as fault lines run
too deep. The best strategy appears, then, for the opposition to run in two
large blocks, one liberal-leaning, the other more centre-left.

The government’s position is made more complicated by internal differences,
especially when it comes to its relationship with the European Union. While PiS
is indeed making its routine EU-sceptic noises, it also is looking out to Brussels
to prop up economic growth with the pandemic relief fund and the bloc’s next
budget. PiS also softened its stance on the EU during the migration crisis on
Poland’s border with Belarus, choosing the “we are defending Europe” tone in
its handling of the crisis.

But PiS’ coalition partner, United Poland, is taking its Euroscepticism utterly
seriously, refusing to move an inch over the issue that is defining Poland’s
open conflict with Brussels: the rule of law. That puts PiS in a bind, as without
United Poland the ruling coalition would collapse overnight.

It remains an open question if the government will crack under more pressure
in 2022 or, conversely, consolidate around the overarching goal of winning a
third term in office. The opposition, in turn, is expected to go beyond its
anti-PiS strategy to draft a positive offer, possibly looking to win over the
growing numbers of voters ditching PiS to join the “I don’t know” camp in the
election polls.

The polls still show the coalition leading at an average of 37%, according to
data canvassed by Politico Europe’s poll of polls. The centrist-liberal Civic
Coalition is at 24%, followed by another centrist group, Polska 2050 at 15% –
with both tipped to work closely together in the run up to the election and quite

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