Page 32 - RusRPTMar21

3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
There is clear evidence that economic recovery has started. The January data should be treated as a clear proof of major improvements in Russia’s economic performance. This is especially important because in the larger part of the country quarantine restrictions were still in place while base factor was not supportive for y/y comparisons.
As both of these factors will start to reverse in the coming months, Russian economy will likely demonstrate a major upward spike in its dynamic.
BCS GM forecast GDP growth of 3.3% y/y in 2021; however, if crude oil prices remain near their current levels of c $65 and government hikes its social spending ahead of autumn Duma elections, chances are high that growth rate could exceed 4% mark.
In January, Russian consumer demand has shown big improvements,
32 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com