Page 33 - RusRPTMar21

according to monthly macro report released by Rosstat.
The biggest changes were in areas of retail sales (-0.1% y/y v -3.6% in December 2020) and employment (unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 5.9% a month earlier – beating negative seasonal trends).
While the volume of paid services to the population was still in decline (-9.4% y/y), it demonstrated clear signs of improvement (in December it fell by 12.5% y/y). Residential construction trend reversed from -12.6% y/y in December to +15.1% y/y in January – a surprising change given much colder weather this year.
In the real economy, agriculture (0.7% y/y) and gross construction (0.1% y/y) continued to show modest growth last month while falls in volumes of industrial production (-2.5% y/y) and cargo transportation (-2% y/y) were almost solely linked to cuts in crude oil exports – the result of OPEC+ agreements.
Russia’s sector activity data for January showed that industry came off the boil at the start of the year while activity in the retail sector picked up strongly as the effects of the coronacrisis start to fade, Capital Economics said in a note on February 18.
“The fall in virus cases and relaxation of some restrictions should support the economy in Q1, but the painfully slow vaccine rollout adds to the headwinds further ahead,” Liam Peach, an economist with Capital Economics, wrote.
Industrial production softened at the start of this year after picking up in the last quarter of 2020.
“It is becoming increasingly difficult to make sense of the first release of industrial production figures in Russia given the major revisions made by Rosstat after the full survey data become available. But for what it’s worth, the 0.2% y/y fall in December was revised to growth of 2.1% y/y and, in January, production fell by 2.5% y/y,” said Peach.
Manufacturing growth slipped from an upwardly-revised +7.9% y/y in December to -1.0% y/y in January.
“This partly reflected calendar effects as there were fewer working days in January 2021 than in 2020 but, even in seasonally-adjusted terms, output fell by 4% m/m, which more than reversed the 3.4% m/m rise in December,” reports Peach. “Meanwhile, the mining sector continued its steady recovery as oil production rose further, with mining output growth edging up from -7.5% y/y in December to -7.1% y/y in January.”
The figures also showed that the contraction in retail sales eased from -3.6% y/y in December to -0.1% y/y in January – a lot better than the consensus
33 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com