Page 34 - RusRPTMar21

expectation of a -3.0% year-on-year contraction.
“This was broad-based among food (-4.5% y/y to -1.0% y/y) and non-food (-2.6% y/y to +0.9% y/y) categories and may partly reflect the easing of some virus restrictions in major cities as well as the relatively high level of social transfers from the government,” said Peach.
Overall, Capital Economics’ GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Russia broadly stagnated at -3 to -4% y/y at the start of 2021, but like most observers, Capital Economics expects Russia’s economy to rebound strongly this year from the second quarter onwards to end the year with about 3% growth.
“Russia has come through its second virus wave relatively well compared to many other countries, but the recovery is lacking momentum. With the vaccine rollout looking like it will take months to pick up pace, the downside risks to our GDP growth forecast of 3.5% this year are mounting,” said Peach.
The Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration reported that the percentage people permanently employed in the “shadow economy” of informal employment in 2020 dropped nearly 4 percentage points from 2019 to 20.5%, and those who receive most of their income from informal employment dropped nearly 2 points to 11.3%.
34 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com