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EurOil COMMENTARY EurOil

Total sees oil demand

peaking in 2030

Faced with gloomier prospects for oil, Total is doubling down on gas and renewables

FRANCE FRENCH oil major Total has joined other oil scenarios which it calls Momentum and Rup-
companies predicting that peak oil demand will ture. Both envisage Europe becoming carbon
WHAT: arrive in the coming decade, forecasting an end neutral by 2050 – the goal set in the European
Total has forecast in its to consumption growth in 2030. Green Deal. Momentum sees countries in the
Energy Outlook that oil This represents a more bullish forecast than rest of the world pursuing their existing national
demand will peak in that of UK peer BP, which recently warned that climate targets, as well as an aggressive deploy-
2030, or possibly sooner, oil consumption would peak in the early 2020s, ment of proven clean technologies such as elec-
depending on the pace of if it has not done so already. However, it still tric vehicles (EVs), solar, wind and biofuel.
decarbonisation efforts. marks a major turnaround in Total’s thinking. “Momentum goes beyond the business-as-
Just a few years ago Pouyanne described peak oil usual scenario; nevertheless, it fails the well-be-
WHY: demand as merely a possibility. Consumption low 2oC target globally,” Kristoffersen said.
Oil will begin to cede could reach its height sooner than 2030, Total Rupture, on the other hand, sees all countries
market share in transport now says, depending on the pace of decarbon- pledging net-zero targets while also envisaging
to cleaner fuels, and isation efforts. breakthroughs in as-yet-unproved technologies
the petrochemicals Faced with gloomier prospects for oil, Total is such as hydrogen, synthetic fuels and carbon
sector will undergo a not only looking to expand in renewable energy capture. This will enable them to be developed at
transformation, Total but also gas, which it sees as having a much scale to cut emissions. As such, global tempera-
says. stronger outlook. Gas will have an important ture growth will be limited at 1.5-1.7oC.
role in decarbonisation by displacing dirtier While primary energy consumption will
WHAT NEXT: fuels, Total argues, especially as greener gases climb by 0.6% annually in Momentum, it rises
Total believes the outlook are adopted. by only 0.4% per year in Rupture.
for gas is much stronger. “Oil demand will reach a plateau around 2030 Solar and wind power will see a rapid expan-
It plans to double its and then decline slowly thereafter due to trans- sion in usage in both scenarios, being deployed at
LNG sales within the next port and petrochem accelerated transforma- a rate of more than 200 GW per year in Momen-
decade and focus on tion,” Total’s president for strategy-innovation, tum and over 500 GW per year in Rupture. The
making gas greener. Helle Kristoffersen, said. “Gas will continue to share of EVs in transport will also soar to 60%
play a key role for decades. It has a key role to play in Momentum and 75% in Rupture, compared
in power systems, heat and in transport.” with the current 1%. Carbon capture and storage
(CCS) capacity will also be scaled up to 2,000-
Energy outlook 7,500 gigatonnes per year.
Kristoffersen was discussing Total’s Energy Gas will primarily seize market share away
Outlook report published on September 29. The from coal and oil. In Momentum, its consump-
company forecast continued growth in global tion will increase by 1.3% annually and reach 5.7
energy demand over the next three decades in all trillion cubic metres by 2050. Its biggest gains
scenarios considered, by 10-25% in total during will be in Asia, where it will substitute a lot of
the period. But this extra demand will be met by coal-fired generation. Gas will remain vital in
low-carbon power. power generation, in industry and in residential
Electricity’s share of final energy consump- and commercial sectors, Kristoffersen said. It
tion will rise from 20% currently to 30-40% by will also expand in transport, becoming a more
2050. widespread fuel for vehicles and ships.
Total bases its predictions on two main Even in Rupture, gas will remain an important

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 40 08•October•2020