Page 33 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Russia Dec17

inflationary trend is unlikely to be noticeable in the near future due to the effects from other disinflationary factors.
In particular, the lifting of the ban on tomato imports from Turkey starting November 1 should limit the seasonally driven spike in fruit and vegetable prices in Russia (4% of the total CPI basket) and lead to deceleration of inflation to a level below 3.2% y/y, which is our target for end 2017.
3.2 Macro outlook
Morgan Stanley has improved its outlook for Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2017 to 1.8% from 1.5% projected in July and to 2.3% from 1.8% for 2018, it said in a report on November 26. Morgan Stanley said that high oil prices, a rise in salaries in the private sector and construction operations ahead of the world football championship to help economic growth in 2018. It added that inflation is to stay below 4%, prompting the central bank to reduce the key interest rate to 7% only. Morgan Stanley’s outlook for the country’s GDP growth in 2019 stands at 1.8%, and for 2020-2022 at 1.8%. Inflation in Russia is expected at 3.7% in 2017, 3.8% in 2018, 4.1% in 2019, and 4.2% in 2020-2022.
Russia's GDP is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2017 and 2018 in the latest outlook published by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on November 28. The OECD's forecast is rather optimistic and is almost in line with 2-2.1% official government's target , which was recently undermined by the disappointing third-quarter GDP numbers and industrial output stumbling in the fall .
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) affirmed Russia's GDP growth outlook of 1.8% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018 , according to the head of the fund's permanent mission in Russia Gabriel Di Bella cited by Reuters on November 9.
33 RUSSIA Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com