Page 34 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Russia Dec17

In October the IMF followed the wave of Russia's outlook revisions and increased the GDP growth forecast from previous 1.4% for 2017 and 2018 and attributed it to stronger global financial stability, slower inflation, output gains, and ruble strengthening.
However, the IMF kept the forecast more cautious than the recently improved 2% GDP growth goal set by Russian Ministry of Economic Development.
The fund still sees risks to the outlook from oil price volatility, the ongoing capital outflow, and the deepening of the sanctions against Russia's largest oil and gas companies and banks.
In July, the IMF report laid out the priorities required for a new growth model for Russia: re-introducing the "budget rule" regulating spending, maintaining 4% inflation while continuing monetary easing, and reforming the financial sector to support growth.
The fourth requirement, perhaps the least easy to fulfil, is the decisive promotion of structural reforms and re-balancing the economy towards the non-trade sectors.
Earlier this year the EconMin of recently appointed Maxim Oreshkin as minister who upgraded the GDP outlook to an over 2% in 2017-2020, hoping for a structural lift from labour productivity measures yet to be implemented.
Russia's GDP expanded by 2.4% in September 2017 in year-on-year terms and by 2.2% in the third quarter overall , Oreshkin told Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 20, as cited by Reuters.
"Overall the ongoing [economic] recovery is continuing," Oreshkin told Putin. Rosstat agency estimated that Russia's GDP expanded by 2.5% y/y in the second quarter and by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2017.
According to the minister, the positive economic dynamics are set to continue in the coming quarters due to recovery in wages, as well as crediting and investment activity.
While recent reports confirm that consumption is indeed on the rise , the government's investment growth forecasts were recently doubted by the Chamber of Accounts .
34 RUSSIA Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com