Page 4 - DMEA Week 43 2020

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA

Libya back on track

The UN-brokered ceasefire agreement between GNA and LNA may bring the

country’s oil production back up to year-ago levels soon

LIBYA JUST a few weeks ago, Libya appeared to be in a Ceasefire deal
precarious position. The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL),
WHAT: On the one hand, the country was mak- which brokered the talks that led to the cease-
The two main warring ing progress with respect to bringing its bat- fire, announced the breakthrough on October
factions in Libya have tered oil industry back online. In light of the 23. “The 5+5 Joint Military Commission talks in
concluded a permanent, pledge by the Libyan National Army (LNA), Geneva today culminated in a historic achieve-
country-wide ceasefire controlled by Khalifa Haftar, to suspend the ment where Libyan parties reached a permanent
agreement. blockade on its production and transport ceasefire agreement,” UNSMIL said in a state-
infrastructure, National Oil Corp. (NOC) and ment. “This achievement marks an important
WHY: its subsidiaries were bringing fields back into turning point towards achieving peace and sta-
The two main warring production and resuming exports to the world bility in Libya.”
factions in Libya have market. As a result, output levels were already According to UN representatives, the accord
concluded a permanent, topping 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) by Octo- is permanent and will cover the entire country.
country-wide ceasefire ber 11. GNA controls most of north-western Libya,
agreement. On the other hand, the country was also while LNA and its allies hold most of the rest of
approaching a key deadline. Benghazi-based the country, including the largest oilfields and
WHAT NEXT: LNA had agreed on September 18 to lift the multiple export terminals on the coast.
Lasting success may blockade for one month, and as October 18 According to Stephanie Williams, the UN’s
depend on Tripoli’s approached, there was no sign that it was likely to Acting Special Representative for Libya, the deal
ability to show that it has strike a deal with the Tripoli-based Government clears one of the remaining obstacles facing the
addressed complaints of National Accord (GNA) on the distribution of country’s oil industry – namely, the presence of
about the distribution of oil revenues and other contentious issues. foreign troops at oilfields, tank farms and other
oil revenues. Nevertheless, the two sides did not resume infrastructure facilities. The agreement provides
hostilities once the deadline had passed. Instead, for all such troops to leave Libya within three
they reportedly agreed to extend talks until months, she told reporters in Geneva on Octo-
October 24. LNA did not re-impose the block- ber 23. As a result, she said, there are “good indi-
ade, and NOC continued to restore its produc- cations that the oil installations of Ras Lanuf and
tion and transport networks. Es Sider will be ready to resume [operations] in
Then on October 23, a day early, GNA and the near future, in a very short period of time.”
LNA signed a ceasefire agreement. Williams’ optimism was not misplaced. She

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