Page 7 - FSUOGM Week 06 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Insurance and Norwegian classification society France, the EU’s second most influential mem-
DNV GL. ber, has also urged Germany to rethink its sup-
Only less than 5% of the pipeline is left to port in light of the Navalny case.
complete, though, and Germany’s support for “We have already said we have the greatest
the project has not wavered, despite intensified doubts on this project in this context,” European
US pressure and international outrage over Mos- Affairs Minister Clement Beaune told France
cow’s treatment of opposition leader Alexei Nav- Inter radio on February 1. Asked if France
alny and his supporters. The US may therefore wanted Berlin to withdraw its backing, he said:
have conceded that its efforts have failed. “Indeed, we have already said this.”
While former US President Donald Trump More sanctions were a possible option, he
avoided criticism of Russia, he expressed strong said, while acknowledging that “it’s a decision for
opposition to Nord Stream 2. Rather than citing Germany, because the pipeline is in Germany.”
political considerations, Trump did not disguise Still, the consensus among analysts is that the
the fact his chief concern was the competition 55 bcm per year pipeline will reach completion,
that the Russian pipeline posed to US LNG. albeit after some time.
His successor Joe Biden has also said Nord “Our position has long been that Nord
Stream 2 is “a bad idea” for Europe. But Biden is Stream 2 was likely to be finished in one to two
likely to prioritise improving ties with US allies years regardless of US efforts, and that ramp-up
over protecting the country’s share of the global to full capacity afterwards would likely take sev-
gas market, given his green agenda. eral years,” BCS Global Markets said in a research
Before easing its sanctions, though, the US note. “This news only tends to confirm our view,
wants certain things in return, according to and is positive for Gazprom sentiment.”
Handelsblatt. It is reportedly seeking a guaran- Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of
tee that Russian gas flows via Ukraine will be Russia’s Security Council, said on February 1
maintained, and that the US has a mechanism that Moscow was still confident that the pipe-
for switching off Nord Stream 2 if Ukrainian sup- line would be finished, despite US interference.
plies falter. Under a contract running until the But he warned that Russia would consider legal
end of 2024, Russia has to pay fees covering 40bn action against attempts to thwart the project.
cubic metres per year of gas transit via Ukraine, Whether or not Nord Stream 2 flows gas will
regardless of how much it actually sends. Once ultimately be decided by Germany, which has
this contract expires, though, Gazprom will be repeatedly defended the project as commercial
free to divert all flows to Nord Stream 2 if it is rather than political in nature. It has even taken
ready. steps to shield the pipeline from tougher US
Klaus Ernst, the head of Germany’s Bun- sanctions. However, all eyes are on whether Ber-
destag Committee on Economic Affairs and lin’s resolve will weaken in the face of the mass
Energy, has already responded to the report by detention of protesters across Russia.
ruling out any mechanism that would allow the Navalny returned to Moscow on January 17
US to shut down the pipeline at will. from Berlin, where he was being treated for poi-
soning from a Novichok nerve agent, which he
What next? says was carried out by Russian security services.
Gazprom has warned investors that there is a Tens of thousands took to the streets of Russia’s
risk that Nord Stream 2 could be “suspended or largest cities on January 23, followed by similarly
entirely discontinued due to extraordinary cir- sized protests on January 31. Further protests
cumstances, including local pressure.” erupted after a Moscow court on February 2 sen-
Besides US pressure, the pipeline is opposed tenced Navalny to two years and eight months in
by a number of Eastern European countries. a prison colony. ™

Week 06 10•February•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P7