Page 5 - AfrElec Week 07 2021

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

not changed, he stressed.
“Stopping for two or three months does not attacks by insurgents had been going down since
mean we can’t hit the 2024 target,” the Total CEO the beginning of the year. It also reported that
remarked. the armed forces had killed a number of sus-
“My highest priority is the security of ... the pected ASWJ members in a series of air raids
staff who work on the ground in Mozambique,” and ground attacks.
he added. Additionally, it said that analysts and mil-
itary sources believed that the Islamist group
Facing the insurgency was running low on supplies. For example, it
He went on to say that establishing this safe zone quoted Calton Cadeado, a security researcher at
was necessary because of civil conflict in Cabo the Joaquim Chissano University in Maputo, as
Delgado. saying that the Islamist group was not only run-
“The security situation is problematic because ning out of the ammunition and weapons it had
jihadist groups got to within less than 10 km [of] seized from military bases last year but was also
the site,” he was quoted as saying by Africanews. short on food, because its incursions had pre-
He was referring to the fact that some of the areas vented many local farmers from planting and
within the designated perimeter were the scene harvesting.
of heavy fighting between soldiers and members ‘Where do you get food if there are no people
of Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo (ASWJ), an Islamist producing it in the area at this point? There is
group that has links to the Islamic State (Daesh), no war without supplies, without logistics,” he
last November and December. remarked.
ASWJ is looking to seize control of Cabo Del- Cadeado also pointed to FADM’s recent vic-
gado, but Pouyanné said last week that he hoped tories. “We are seeing a success of the govern-
to see FADM re-establish control over the entire ment forces’ offensive strategy,” he told AFP. He
province. “It is the government’s responsibility to also said that relations between the armed forces
secure the area for this project to continue. With and residents of Cabo Delgado had “improved a
the deployment of forces, the whole of Cabo Del- lot” recently.
gado Province will be secure,” he said. If conditions continue to improve along these
lines, Total may very well be able to resume work
FADM gains momentum on the Mozambique LNG project by the end
In the past, observers have expressed doubt of March, in line with Pouyanné’s predictions.
about FADM’s ability to regain the upper hand However, Cadeado advised caution, speculating
in Cabo Delgado, raising questions about the that ASWJ might shift from trying to gain terri-
armed forces’ capabilities and capacity to work tory and followers in Cabo Delgado to attacking
with residents of the remote northern province. the liquefaction plant and other gas facilities.
But within the last month, FADM has report- “The worst scenario would be for them to scale
edly scored a number of successes against ASWJ. back wider attacks but strike the heart of the
Africanews noted last week that the number of LNG complex,” he said. ™

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