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3.2 Macro outlook
Ukraine’s economy will contract by 4.2% this year and then see an L-shaped recovery, down from the October forecast of 3.2% growth in 2020, according to Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture estimates, release on April 17.
"According to experts, Ukraine will show a deeper decline than the global economy, which will be 4.2% in 2020. The nature of recovery will be the same, the L-form: quarantine measures already adopted in Ukraine will be further strengthened and will last until the end of the second quarter, which will have a more negative impact on the country's economy, as a result of, which recovery will be very slow," the forecast says, as cited by Interfax Ukraine.
According to the report, in 2021 the Ukrainian economy will return to growth in 2021 when it will grow by 2.4%, the ministry said.
The experts also worsened the inflation forecast this year from 6.3% to 7%, but next year they expect it to drop to 5.9%.
According to the forecast, the average annual hryvnia exchange rate to US dollar exchange rate will be UAH28.85/$.
"All elements of demand will have negative dynamics, but the largest drop will be in investments – it will amount to 14.8%," the forecast says.
The budget deficit will amount to 5.6% of GDP.
According to the consensus forecast, unemployment in Ukraine in 2020 will reach 9.4%, in 2021 some 9.1%, the ministry said reports Interfax.
The consensus forecast was prepared on the basis of updated assessments by experts from the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Finance, the National
15 UKRAINE Country Report May 2020 www.intellinews.com
