Page 16 - UKRRptMay20

Bank, as well as more than a dozen state and non-governmental organizations and companies.
The World Bank predicts that Ukraine’s economy will shrink this year by 3.5%.​ This moderate forecast is contingent on the virus subsiding in the second half of the year and on Ukraine reaching an agreement with the IMF. If those two conditions are met, the Bank says, Ukraine’s economy should return to its path of moderate growth, growing next year by 3%. In 2019, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 3.2%, and in 2018, by 3.4%.
The IMF predicts Ukraine’s GDP will fall this year by 7.7%,​ tracking a 7.5% fall in the Eurozone group of 19 countries. Russia’s fall is pegged at 5.5%. Titled The Great Lockdown, the IMF’s semi-annual report predicts a worldwide rebound next year, with Ukraine growing by 3.6%. This year, the IMF predicts, Ukraine’s inflation will be on target, at 4.5%, and the current account deficit will fall sharply, to 2% of GDP this year, from 7% last year.
4.0​ Real Economy 4.1​ Industrial production
The deceleration of Ukraine's industrial output was reinforced in March to a 7.7% y/y drop ​from 1.5% y/y in February, the State Statistics Service reported on April 24. Seasonally adjusted output decreased 1.3% m/m. In 1Q20, industrial output dropped 5.1% y/y.
Manufacturing output plummeted 8.5% y/y in March (after a 0.4% y/y decline in February). In particular, metallurgy output dropped 15.8% y/y (vs. a 4.3% y/y decline in February). Machinery production fell 16.8% y/y (after a 13.2% y/y decrease in February). Food production slid 1.3% y/y (vs. 6.6% y/y growth in February). Meanwhile, pharmaceutical industry surged 21.8% y/y (vs. a 0.3% y/y decline in February), and chemical production inched up 2.3% y/y (after a 22.5% y/y advance in February).
Mining output fell 4.3% y/y in March, after declining 4.1% y/y February. In particular, coal production plunged 19.0% y/y, oil and natural gas production slid 3.7% y/y, and iron ore output dropped 3.0% y/y. The supply of electricity and natural gas declined 10.0% y/y in March after an 11.8% y/y drop in February.
Regionally, the steepest declines were observed in the Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (-31.3% y/y), Chernivtsi (-20.2% y/y) and Zakarpattia (-19.3% y/y) regions. Growth was strongest in the Kirovohrad (8.3% y/y), Lviv (6.0% y/y) and Kherson (3.6% y/y) regions.
16​ UKRAINE Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com