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4.2 Inflation
The NBU revised downwards its inflation forecast for Ukraine in 2020 from 4.8% to 6% and confirmed it at 5% for 2021-2022.
"In 2020, inflation will remain within the target range of 5% +/- 1 pp. This will not be impeded by monetary and fiscal support to the economy," the NBU said n April 23.
Fitch expects inflation to average 5.3% in 2020 and 5.9% in 2021, somewhat above the forecast 5.0% and 4.5% 'B' medians but in line with the NBU's inflation target (5% plus or minus 1% in 2020).
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
Ukraine’s consumer prices jumped 0.8% m/m in March, owing mostly to growing prices for food, transportation, clothing and sportswear, the State Statistics Service reported on April 9. Annual inflation slowed to 2.3% y/y in March from 2.4% y/y in the prior month.
Food prices rose 0.4% m/m in March (after declining 0.4% m/m in February), driven mostly by bread (1.1% m/m), fruits (3.9% m/m), vegetables (1.7% m/m) and sugar (2.9% m/m). At the same time, egg prices declined 12.3% m/m and milk dropped 0.6% m/m.
Prices for clothing and footwear jumped 12.8% m/m (after declining 4.3% y/y in February). In addition, prices for transportation rose 0.7% m/m, mostly due to higher pricing for railway passenger services. On top of that, prices in healthcare jumped 1.4% m/m, mostly due to growing prices for
17 UKRAINE Country Report May 2020 www.intellinews.com
