Page 7 - AsiaElec Week 35 2021
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AsiaElec                                          COAL                                              AsiaElec


       China opens border to Mongolian coal trucks





        MONGOLA          CHINA has reopened its border to Mongolian  Mongolia.
                         coal trucks, but shipments remain limited and   The announcement related to the new termi-
                         are so far insufficient to alleviate a persistent  nal came shortly after the the Mongolian-Chi-
                         supply crunch, particularly of steel-making coal,  nese Zamiin-Uud-Erenhot crossing restriction
                         Bloomberg reported on September 1.   was lifted on August 30, increasing commodity
                           The Gashuunsukhait-Ganqimaodu crossing  transports.
                         was reopened on August 31, according to Feng-  Coking coal futures in Dalian rose to an all-
                         kuang Coal Logistics, after a halt of over a week  time high last week and have gained over 50%
                         to prevent the spread of COVID-19 from Mon-  this year. Domestic supply in China has been
                         golia. However, traffic has been slowed by virus  constrained by safety and environmental restric-
                         tests on truck drivers.              tions, exacerbated by China’s ban on Australian
                           Mongolia’s finance minister, Javkhlan Bold,  coal and the suspension of overland imports
                         told the Montsame media outlet that with the  from Mongolia, Morgan Stanley said in a note
                         reopening of the border to coal trucks, Mon-  to clients.
                         golia will be able to hit projections thanks to a   Prices fell 0.4% to 2,451 yuan ($379) a tonne
                         new customs terminal. He was quoted as saying:  on September 1 for a fifth daily decline since the
                         “Mongolia exports about 70% of its coal through  record was hit. Thermal coal futures in Zheng-
                         the Gashuunsukhait border checkpoint... At the  zhou dropped for the first time this week and
                         border checkpoint, the construction of a customs  were also close to all-time highs.
                         zone has recently been completed, where driv-  Environmental officials continue to target
                         ers will be able to load and unload coal without  Chinese coal operations.
                         leaving their trucks. By putting it into operation,   At the same time, environmental scrutiny
                         we plan to export most of the 9.6mn tonnes of  could reduce demand for the mineral as China
                         coal that have accumulated at Tsagaan Khad. It  halts new industrial projects in regions that fail
                         is considered that this will create the opportunity  to comply with energy-saving and emissions tar-
                         to export the same amount of coal as previous  gets, as part of President Xi Jinping’s drive for a
                         years in the coming year.”           carbon-neutral economy by 2060. The mounting
                           Fitch Ratings saw the new terminal as set to  climate pressure has weighed on metals produc-
                         significantly boost coal export to China from  tion including in steel and aluminum.™



       Mongolian coal to benefit from new terminal




        CHINA            A new terminal on Mongolia’s border with  without leaving the restricted area. This arrange-
                         China introduced in tandem with the reopening  ment will reduce human contact and the possi-
                         of the frontier should ultimately help the Mon-  bility of COVID-19 transmission.
                         golian mining sector to recover, according to a   “For the remainder of 2021, we assume the
                         Fitch Ratings assessment released on Septem-  new terminal will have annualised traffic of
                         ber 1. However, the ratings agency added that  9mn tonnes, with the terminal shared among
                         even with the new terminal, border disruptions  three coal producers. From 2022 we assume
                         would continue to incapacitate one of Mongolia’s  annualised traffic of 18mn tonnes. The new ter-
                         biggest mining companies, Mongolian Mining  minal will boost MMC’s export volume signifi-
                         Corporation (MMC).                   cantly. The company now expects daily average
                           “We estimate sufficient liquidity to serve its  throughput to be around 175-200 trucks per
                         coupon obligations in October 2021 irrespec-  day,” Fitch added.
                         tive of the operational status. However, the com-  The rating agency anticipated a recovery in
                         pany’s credit metrics may weaken to the point  MMC’s financials in 4Q21. Operations should
                         where we may take rating action if border dis-  return to normal in 2022, and the rating head-
                         ruptions continue to worsen and completion of  room would widen if the new terminal could
                         the new terminal falls behind schedule,” Fitch  begin operations as planned this month, along
                         stated.                              with an improvement in the COVID situation,
                           The terminal eliminates the need for Mon-  Fitch said. However, a worsening COVID situ-
                         golian truck drivers to cross the border; trucks  ation and operational lags at the new terminal
                         will unload coal at a point still within Mongolia  might cause MMC’s credit profile to deteriorate,
                         and Chinese truck drivers will pick up shipments  and may lead to a rating action, it observed.™








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