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3.2 Macro outlook
NBU expects accelerated economic growth in the second quarter of 2018 . The NBU expects a moderate acceleration in the growth of the Ukrainian economy and stable growth in investment activity in the second quarter of 2018. Further increase in consumer demand will be facilitated by increased income of the population (including through military pensions, wages and remittances). NBU’s press service says. In the first quarter of 2018 , the economy accelerated growth to 3.1% on an annual basis. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP growth was 0.9% seasonally adjusted. Actual growth rates of real GDP in the first quarter of 2018 were higher than the NBU’s expectation of 2.3% in the Inflation Report for April 2018.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects the country’s economic growth rate to reach 3-3.5% this year , the Director of its Financial Stability Department Vitaly Vavrishchuk has announced, Ukrinform reports. "We would like these rates to be higher, especially given the significant decline in the production output during the crisis period. The economy needs new impulses, and such impulses could be structural and institutional reforms, which are incorporated in the program of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Therefore, we want this program to be resumed," Vavrishchuk said.
NBU: Ukraine needs two IMF tranches for financial stability. The receipt of two tranches of a loan from the IMF under the current Extended Fund Facility (EFF) will ensure Ukraine's macroeconomic and financial stability, the NBU says in a new report on financial stability, Ukrinform reports. “If Ukraine receives two more tranches before the completion of the IMF program, then short- and medium-term risks for macroeconomic and financial stability will be minimized," the NBU says. It adds that in the short term the key challenge is the need to refinance Ukraine's external debt. "Without cooperation with international financial institutions, Ukraine will not be able to attract funds on foreign markets on favourable terms to refinance its commitments," the
16 UKRAINE Country Report July 2018 www.intellinews.com