Page 5 - MEOG Week 13 2022

MEOG COMMENTARY MEOG

Targets (mbpd) Baseline (mbpd)
March 2022 April 2022 Until end May 2022 May 2022 onwards
OPEC
Algeria 0.992 1.002 1.057 1.057
Angola 1.435 1.45 1.528 1.528
Congo (Brazzaville) 0.306 0.309 0.325 0.325
Equatorial Guinea 0.12 0.121 0.127 0.127
Gabon 0.175 0.177 0.187 0.187
Iran Exempt Exempt Exempt Exempt
Iraq 4.37 4.414 4.653 4.803
Kuwait 2.639 2.666 2.809 2.959
Libya Exempt Exempt Exempt Exempt
Nigeria 1.718 1.735 1.829 1.829
Saudi Arabia 10.331 10.436 11.000 11.500
UAE 2.976 3.006 3.168 3.500
Venezuela Exempt Exempt Exempt Exempt
Total 25.062 25.316 26.683 27.815
Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan 0.675 0.682 0.718 0.718
Bahrain 0.193 0.195 0.205 0.205
Brunei 0.096 0.097 0.102 0.102
Kazakhstan 1.605 1.621 1.709 1.709
Malaysia 0.559 0.565 0.595 0.595
Mexico 1.753 1.753 Exempt Exempt
Oman 0.829 0.837 0.883 0.883
Russia 10.331 10.436 11.000 11.500
Sudan 0.071 0.072 0.075 0.075
South Sudan 0.122 0.123 0.130 0.130
Total 16.234 16.381 15.417 15.917
OPEC+ 41.296 41.697 42.1 43.732

“When we get into the building for our meet- adjustment become current. Amid pressure,
ings, we leave politics outside of the door and predominantly from the UAE, a compromise
that culture has been with us. If we don’t do that, was reached among member countries in July
we will not have dealt with so many countries 2021 to allow the quota reference levels for the
at different times,” he added during a summit in top producers to be eased.
Dubai. A deal was agreed for the baselines of the two
Prince Abdulaziz noted that Saudi Arabia top producers, Saudi and Russia, to increase by
and the UAE had found ways to maintain OPEC 500,000 bpd to 11.5mn bpd each, with the UAE’s
and OPEC+ arrangements with Iran despite its rising by 332,000 bpd to 3.5mn bpd as Iraq
funding of Yemen’s Houthi militia, which has and Kuwait also receive uplifts of 150,000 bpd
carried out numerous attacks on the countries each, taking their baselines to 4.803mn bpd and
and their oil infrastructure. 2.959mn bpd respectively.
Meanwhile, Al-Mazrouei said during the However, given uncertainty about Russian
same event: “Countries have the right to select and Kazakh crude, delegates speaking on con-
from the resources they buy, but we cannot dition of anonymity told various publications
decide for all and say you cannot buy these bar- this week that there is a careful balancing act
rels – that is outside the OPEC.” to be done and there is a feeling that alternative
options may be under consideration, including
Baseline boost a one-off uptick in output from Saudi Arabia and
While the OPEC+ will set the tone, and by the UAE.
extension a price range, for the coming month, The market is clearly ready for more produc-
scrutiny has been unsurprisingly levelled at the tion, but the top OPEC producers will be wary of
group’s ability to produce at or around its self-im- eating into their spare supply at a time when they
posed targets. may be called upon to provide larger volumes to
Data from OPEC’s Joint Technical Commit- compensate for a potential loss of more Russian
tee showed that OPEC+ production in January supplies.
missed the 23-nation group’s 40.493mn bpd Having worked so hard to improve condi-
quota by 972,000 bpd, while S&P Global Insights tions for exporters, Saudi Arabia in particular
reported this week that the February target had will retain its cautious stance as it seeks to main-
been missed by 1.05mn bpd. tain its position as the de-facto leader of the oil
This underproduction is coming under industry, with much of its power emanating
sharper focus as discussions about the baseline from that spare capacity.™

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