Page 6 - MEOG Week 35 2021
P. 6

MEOG                                              POLICY                                               MEOG


       OPEC+ unlikely to heed




       US calls for output hike




        OPEC+            THE OPEC+ group is unlikely to make any  media outlets including Reuters, saying that a
                         changes to its oil output policy when members  change of policy was unlikely.
                         meet this week, according to numerous delegates   However, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Moham-
                         and traders.                         mad Al-Fares caused confusion when he said
                           If correct, this will give OPEC+ a total com-  on August 29: “The markets are slowing. Since
                         bined production target of 37.14mn barrels  COVID-19 has begun its fourth wave in some
                         per day (bpd) during September, up from the  areas, we must be careful and reconsider this
                         36.74mn-bpd August target. The increase in  increase. There may be a halt to the 400,000
                         output follows the agreement reached in July to  (bpd) increase,” only to later clarify that Kuwait
                         collectively ease production cuts by 400,000 bpd  would support any decision based on “consen-
                         each month from August and pushing back the  sus” among OPEC+ members.
                         current April 2022 end date until the end of the   “As always, the State of Kuwait supports
                         year.                                the consensus within the OPEC+ group, as all
                           At this rate, it will take nearly 15 months for  options are explored, and confirms that no
                         OPEC+ to increase production by the 5.8mn  decisions have been reached yet with regards to
                         bpd withheld under the agreement reached in  the forthcoming meetings on September 1,” he
                         early 2020 as the group scrambled to balance the  added.
                         market.                                When Fares was asked about US efforts to
                           In August, the US government urged OPEC  lobby for a production increase, he said: “There
                         and its allies to ramp up production to slow ris-  are meetings with OPEC countries, especially
                         ing gasoline prices which have been viewed as  the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and
                         posing a challenge to economic recovery.  so far there are different views on how to handle
                           OPEC+ delegates were quoted by several  this issue.”™


                                              Targets (mbpd)               Baseline (mbpd)
                                        August 2021 September 2021 Until end May 2022 May 2022 onwards
                        OPEC
                        Algeria              0.922          0.932           1.057            1.057
                        Angola               1.333          1.348           1.528            1.528
                        Congo (Brazzaville)  0.284          0.287           0.325
                        Equatorial Guinea    0.111          0.112           0.127
                        Gabon                0.163          0.165           0.187
                        Iran                                               Exempt          Exempt
                        Iraq                 4.061          4.105           4.653            4.803
                        Kuwait               2.451          2.478           2.809            2.959
                        Libya                                              Exempt          Exempt
                        Nigeria              1.596          1.614           1.829            1.829
                        Saudi Arabia           9.6          9.704          11.000           11.500
                        UAE                  2.765          2.795           3.168            3.500
                        Venezuela                                          Exempt          Exempt

                        Non-OPEC
                        Azerbaijan           0.627          0.633           0.718            0.718
                        Bahrain              0.179          0.181           0.205            0.205
                        Brunei               0.089           0.09           0.102            0.102
                        Kazakhstan           1.491          1.508           1.709            1.709
                        Malaysia             0.519          0.525           0.595            0.595
                        Mexico               1.753          1.753          Exempt          Exempt
                        Oman                 0.771          0.779           0.883            0.883
                        Russia                 9.6          9.704          11.000           11.500
                        Sudan                0.065          0.066           0.075            0.075
                        South Sudan          0.113          0.115           0.130            0.130





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