Page 4 - FSUOGM Week 08 2023
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FSUOGM                                        COMMENTARY                                            FSUOGM









































       BP predicts faster decline





       in oil and gas demand






       BP is forecasting a faster decline in oil and gas demand in a break
       from the past.


        GLOBAL           BP released its flagship annual report, Energy  emissions – 75% in Accelerated and more than
                         Outlook, at the end of January, forecasting an  95% in Net Zero. Net Zero will also involve a
       WHAT:             accelerated decline in oil and gas consumption  shift in societal behaviour and preferences to
       BP has released its   as a result of fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war  support increased energy efficiency and the
       flagship Energy Outlook   and the impact of the broader energy crisis.  greater adoption of low-carbon technologies.
       report.             In light of soaring global oil and gas prices,  This is to say that they are scenarios based on
                         caused in part by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine  predetermined outcomes.
       WHY:              and the subsequent severing of energy ties   BP’s third scenario, New Momentum, fore-
       The UK major sets out   between Russia and the EU, countries will pur-  casts the current trajectory of the global energy
       one scenario based   sue greater energy security over the next decade,  system, based on current trends and known pol-
       on current trends and   and this will result in a faster decline in global oil  icy directions. It stresses “the marked increase in
       existing policies, and   and gas demand, BP said. At the same time, the  global ambition for decarbonisation in recent
       two more based on   UK major predicts an accelerated shift towards  years, as well as on the manner and speed of
       predetermined climate   renewable energy – in part because of high oil  decarbonisation seen over the recent past.”
       goals.            and gas prices, and in part because of hydro-  The UK cautions that “the scenarios are not
                         carbon importers developing more domestic  predictions of what is likely to happen or what
       WHAT NEXT:        energy supply. And this will mean that global  BP would like to happen.” Furthermore, it states
       The company has   emissions fall more quickly, BP said.  that “the many uncertainties surrounding the
       stressed the need for an   BP outlines three scenarios in its outlook.  transition of the global energy system mean
       orderly transition from oil   The first two – Accelerated and Net Zero – are  that the probability of any one of these scenarios
       and gas to avoid future   broadly in line with IPCCs scenarios that are  materialising exactly as described is negligible.”
       crises.           consistent with Paris Agreement goals. These  Nevertheless, the outlook provides useful insight
                         scenarios envisage the substantial cut in carbon  on how global energy trends may play out over



       P4                                       www. NEWSBASE .com                       Week 08   22•February•2023
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