Page 5 - AfrElec Week 03 2022

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

to soften the impacts on the most vulnerable and “Emissions from electricity need to decline by
to address the underlying causes. Higher invest- 55% by 2030 to meet our Net Zero Emissions by
ment in low-carbon energy technologies includ- 2050 Scenario, but in the absence of major policy
ing renewables, energy efficiency and nuclear action from governments, those emissions are
power – alongside an expansion of robust and set to remain around the same level for the next
smart electricity grids – can help us get out of three years,” said Dr Birol.
today’s difficulties.” “Not only does this highlight how far off
track we currently are from a pathway to net
Rising prices zero emissions by 2050, but it also underscores
The IEA’s price index for major wholesale elec- the massive changes needed for the electricity
tricity markets almost doubled compared with sector to fulfil its critical role in decarbonising
2020 and was up 64% from the 2016-2020 the broader energy system.”
average.
In Europe, average wholesale electricity Looking ahead
prices in the fourth quarter of 2021 were more For 2022-2024, the report anticipates electric-
than four times their 2015-2020 average. Besides ity demand growing 2.7% a year on average,
Europe, there were also sharp price increases in although the Covid-19 pandemic and high
Japan and India, while they were more moderate energy prices bring some uncertainty to this
in the United States where gas supplies were less outlook.
perturbed. Renewables are set to grow by 8% per year on
Electricity produced from renewable sources average, serving more than 90% of net demand
grew by 6% in 2021, but it was not enough to growth during this period. We expect nucle-
keep up with galloping demand. ar-based generation to grow by 1% annually
Coal-fired generation grew by 9%, serving during the same period.
more than half of the increase in demand and As a consequence of slowing electricity
reaching a new all-time peak as high natural gas demand growth and significant renewables addi-
prices led to gas-to-coal switching. tions, fossil fuel-based generation is expected to
Gas-fired generation grew by 2%, while stagnate in the coming years, with coal-fired
nuclear increased by 3.5%, almost reaching its generation falling slightly as phase-outs and
2019 levels. In total, carbon dioxide (CO2) emis- declining competitiveness in the us and Europe
sions from power generation rose by 7%, also are balanced by growth in markets like China
reaching a record high, after having declined the and India. Gas-fired generation is seen growing
two previous years. by around 1% a year.™

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