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According to the State Statistics Service, real GDP in April-June (taking into account the seasonal factor) decreased by 9.9% compared to the first quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2020 amounted to UAH867.8bn ($30.8bn), and per capita it was UAH20,744. The deflator change was 5%
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture in early August estimated the drop in Ukraine's GDP in the second quarter of this year at 11%, the same as the National Bank, and in general for the first half of the year – at 6.5%. The ministry, like the government, maintains its forecast for a 4.8% decline in GDP this year and expects it to grow by 4.6% next year.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects a slowdown in the decline in the third quarter to 7.4%, in the fourth quarter to 3.8%, in general forecasting a decline in GDP by the end of this year of 6%, and expects its growth next year of 4%.
Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said that the draft budget envisages 4.7% GDP growth and a deficit of 6% of GDP. Ukraine’s economy is expected to contract by about 6% this year.
S&P Global Ratings has predicted that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 6% this year​, then rebound by 4% next year. In 2021 , inflation will increase to 6% and the hryvnia will be at 30 to the dollar. S&P made these predictions as part of a report that confirmed Ukraine's long-term sovereign ratings in foreign and national currency at B, with a stable outlook.
In January-July, a decline in Ukraine's GDP slowed down to 6.2% compared to 6.5% in the first half of this year​, the ministry of economic development, trade and agriculture announced on September 10. "In July 2020, against the background of continued adaptation to work under quarantine conditions, almost all types of economic activity showed a slowdown in the rate of decline or growth (in particular, the retail segment of the market)," the agency said. "This indicates a gradual recovery process and the fact that most areas of the economy are gradually recovering after a lockdown," the ministry says in the document."
The ICU investment group has improved its forecast for Ukraine's GDP this year, lowering its estimate of the fall to minus 5.7%, from its earlier forecast of minus 6.7%.​ This year’s drop will be cancelled out by next year’s growth of 5.6, Sergiy Nikolaychuk, the head of ICU’s macroeconomic research tells Interfax-Ukraine. He said the softening of this year’s fall “was facilitated by the rapid ‘turn on’ of the economy in the summer, and by the improvement of the terms of trade due to high prices for iron ore.”
20​ UKRAINE Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com