Page 21 - UKRRptOct20

4.0​ Real Economy 4.1​ Industrial production
Industrial production continues to lag in Ukraine, recording a 5.3% y/y drop in August​. In June, the fall was 5.6% and in July it was 4.2%, according to the State Statistics Service. Through August, industrial production was down 7.4%, compared to the first eight months of 2019. Dragging down the index in August, processing was down 7.7% and production of investment goods was down 27%.
In Ukraine, Ukrstat reports retail and industrial production for August. ​For 7mo20, industrial production decreased -7.7% y/y (-8.3% y/y for 1H20). In particular, there were y/y drops in mining (​‐​5.5%), electricity, gas and water supply (-5.3%) and manufacturing (-9.2%). Retail rose +8.5% y/y in July (+1.4% y/y month ago) due to the strong catch-up demand, which boosted economic activity. Given that the epidemiological situation worsened in August-September (the authorities extended the quarantine for 2 months until1 November), we expect a slowdown in consumer demand.
21​ UKRAINE Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com