Page 14 - Poland Outlook 2020

ROA at domestic commercial banks (left) and cooperative banks as at the end of H1 2019. Source: NBP’s Financial Stability Report, December 2019.
Quarterly net earnings of the banking sector as at the end of H1 2019. Source: NBP’s Financial Stability Report, December 2019.
• Industry
The story of 2020 in the Polish industrial sector will be the extent to which it will withstand slowdown in Germany. To date, industrial activity has consistently surprised to the upside, resisting the spillover.
Although Poland’s Manufacturing PMI has remained below the 50-point mark separating contraction from growth, it has been largely seen as an outlier rather than anything defining a deep negative trend.
Some slowdown is inevitable, of course, but overall, Polish manufacturers are heading into 2020 on a slightly more upbeat note than could have been expected. The PMI index grew 0.4pp to 48 in December.
“The December PMI survey data from IHS Markit offered some cause for optimism [for 2020], as new orders and production fell more slowly and the
14​ Poland Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com